814 E X St

Deer Park, TX 77536

$299,900B+

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,112 sqft · Built 1968 · SingleFamily · Active · 13 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,779/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax + insurance: −$660
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,004
• Net cashflow: $1,543/mo
• Annual: $18,514/yr
• Cap rate: 12.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.05%
• DSCR: 1.98
• 1% rule: 1.59%
• Cash to close: $83,972

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $300k).
• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#244 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Deer Park ISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #170 of 826 in TX (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Deer Park El (math 55% / reading 51%, grade C, #705 of 4,322 statewide, top 17%, 732 students, 34% FRL); Deer Park H S (math 57% / reading 59%, grade C, #320 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 4,026 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools at 36% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 167 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.3% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 12.5% vs local median 3.6% in Deer Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,779/mo this rent would consume 56% of the median local household income ($102k/yr) (locally 583% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.