814 E X St · Deer Park, TX 77536

$299,900

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,112 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1968 8,189 sqft lot Est $357k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.7/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Original family owned home with rare 5 bedrooms. 30x20 workshop in the backyard with separate AC and electrical panel will be every handyman's dream. Formal living and dining could also serve as gameroom or home office. The interior features vinyl plank flooring, French doors, crown molding, and updated kitchen with granite countertops and stainless and black appliances. Updates include a new driveway, fence, windows, roof, water heater, interior paint and electrical panel. Centrally located in Deer Park.

Key facts

• New driveway
• Updated kitchen
• 30x20 workshop

Tags

• 30X20 WORKSHOP
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS AND BLACK APPLIANCES
• NEW DRIVEWAY
• NEW FENCE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Subdivision; Curbs and gutters in community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; 2 garage spaces; Driveway
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Faces north; Built in 1968; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick and wood siding construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Fully fenced backyard; Back yard fencing; Shed(s); Workshop; Storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Double oven; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Granite counters; Pots & pan drawers
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (approx. 15x12); Additional bedrooms on second floor (five possible bedrooms total; examples include 12x18, 15x11, 12x11, 10x11)
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air (electric); Programmable thermostat; Ventilation for improved indoor air quality
• Interior features: Crown molding; Entrance foyer; Granite counters; Jetted tub; Pots & pan drawers; Window treatments; Ceiling fans; Living/Dining room; Programmable thermostat; Low emissivity windows; Window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup; Utility room (approx. 11x6)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $300k).
• Cap rate 12.5% vs local median 3.6% in Deer Park — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#244 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Deer Park ISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #170 of 826 in TX (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Deer Park El (math 55% / reading 51%, grade C, #705 of 4,322 statewide, top 17%, 732 students, 34% FRL); Deer Park H S (math 57% / reading 59%, grade C, #320 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 4,026 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools at 36% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 167 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,779/mo this rent would consume 56% of the median local household income ($102k/yr) (locally 583% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.3% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $299,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.05%
• DSCR: 1.98
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $356,928
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
902 E X St	0.04mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,178 (+3%)	2mo	$327,000	$150	86
1318 Meadow Lark St	0.29mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,078 (-2%)	1mo	$369,900	$178	74
1102 Brenda Dr	0.29mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,059 (-2%)	7mo	$320,000	$155	71
1717 Shoshoni Dr	0.38mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,155 (+2%)	4mo	$365,000	$169	70
2309 Fay Ct	0.33mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,194 (+4%)	7mo	$265,000	$121	67
1702 Shoshoni Dr	0.40mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,228 (+6%)	7mo	$365,000	$164	62
1418 Watson Dr	0.54mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,019 (-4%)	4mo	$409,000	$203	60
1609 Cherokee St	0.57mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,197 (+4%)	4mo	$375,000	$171	56
1818 Wynforest Dr	0.72mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,178 (+3%)	3mo	$365,000	$168	54
1713 Asbury Ln	0.48mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,836 (-13%)	0mo	$325,000	$177	51
1306 Garden Ct	0.65mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,261 (+7%)	6mo	$304,900	$135	46
2813 Dow Cir	0.65mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,420 (+15%)	5mo	$415,000	$171	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.26% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $46,306
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.83×
• Total profit: $153,266
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77536

• Home prices YoY: -24.8%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 167
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,779 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$535 /mo · $6,418/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,004
• Net cashflow: $1,543

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,826

Max offer price $299,900

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1905 Navajo Dr Unit 1514816P Deer Park, TX	6.0	3.5	2949	$9,186	$3.11	44d	1	0.61mi
418 E 1st St Deer Park, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,000	$1.25	44d	1	1.04mi
500 W Pasadena Blvd Deer Park, TX	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1300	$2,566	$1.97	1d	25	1.21mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,900 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,900 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,900 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,900 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,900 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,900 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,900 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   remarks 510-char remark
9. 2026-06-07
   listed $299,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,418 · $535/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,418 · $535/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $57,347
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$6,418
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,588
• − Management: −$4,588
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable income: $14,731
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,535
• After-tax cash flow: $14,979/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Deer Park ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $68,227
• Composite: 43.3/100
• National rank: #3039
• State rank: #170 of 826 in TX

Livability — Deer Park

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #244
• US rank: #5835

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Deer Park, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 33,174
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,174
• Household income: $102,045
• Rent vs Own: 20.0% rent · 80.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 583.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (58%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 15% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.30%
• Current HPI: 253.1973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.26%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $299,900 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,418 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.