5053 Arancia Ln

Ave Maria, FL 34142

$475,000F

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,903 sqft · Built 2021 · SingleFamily · Active · 104 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,851/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,491
• Tax + insurance: −$901
• HOA: −$168
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$809
• Net cashflow: $-517/mo
• Annual: $-6,203/yr
• Cap rate: 5.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.29%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $133,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $475k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-517 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $384k (19.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $385k (18.9% below list).
• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($432k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $384k (19.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.1%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 451 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $3,851/mo this rent would consume 74% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 1093% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.