5053 Arancia Ln · Ave Maria, FL 34142

$475,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,903 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 101 Days on market

Built 2021 7,405 sqft lot Est $384k · 24% over $168/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home to this impeccably kept three bedroom+den, single family house in Maple Ridge, best selling community of Ave Maria. This one story home boosts an entire reverse osmosis water system, zebra blinds, three full bathrooms (secondary bathroom is customized with a walk-in glass shower), utility sink with a front loading washer/dryer combo, and a screened-in lanai with an additional 12 feet of extended pavers- perfect for your backyard cook-outs. Come and see this gorgeous home for yourself today!

Key facts

• Impact glass window
• Spacious den
• 7,405 sq ft lot

Tags

• IMPACT GLASS WINDOW
• IMPACT RATED FRONT DOOR
• SPACIOUS DEN
• SCREENED IN COVERED LANAI
• EXPANSIVE BRICK PAVER PATIO
• TROPICAL LUSH LANDSCAPING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Property taxes listed (see listing) which are not included here
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Master HOA fee $96 per month; HOA fee $217 quarterly; Total annual recurring fees approximately $2,020; One-time fees approximately $150; Professional management; Maintenance covers cable, legal/accounting, manager, recreation facilities, street lights, street maintenance, and trash removal; Community amenities include clubhouse, community pool and spa/hot tub, exercise room, library, community room, play area, dog park, bike/jog path, sidewalks, shopping, billiards, bocce court, basketball, BBQ/picnic areas

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with automatic garage door
• Security: Impact resistant doors and windows; Manual shutters
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family home; 1-story (ranch); Rear exposure faces north; Residential property in Ave Maria community
• Construction: Built in 2021; Concrete block construction; Stucco exterior; Tile roof; Impact resistant single-hung windows
• Exterior features: Patio; Room for pool; Automatic sprinkler system (reclaimed water irrigation); Landscaped yard

Interior

• Kitchen: Pantry; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator/Freezer; Breakfast bar; Dining area open to family room
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms plus den; Primary bedroom on ground level
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom with dual sinks and shower (no tub)
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling; Ceiling fans; Exhaust fan; Smoke detector
• Interior features: Custom mirrors; French doors; Laundry tub; Great room floor plan; Screened lanai/porch; Guest bath
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry in residence

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $475k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-517 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $384k (19.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $385k (18.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $384k (19.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 449 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,851/mo this rent would consume 74% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 1093% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.1%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($432k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $383,683 (19.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.37%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.29%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $384,406
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4432 Steinbeck Way	0.67mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,959 (+3%)	18mo	$395,000	$202	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.05% appreciation · 2.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-69,687
• Equity at exit: $113,561

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-65,314
• Equity at exit: $118,313

Cash invested: $133,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34142

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 449
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,851 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,491
• Tax from tax record: −$551 /mo · $6,608/yr
• Insurance: −$198
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$152 /mo · $1,824/yr
• HOA: −$168
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$809
• Net cashflow: $-517

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,506

Max offer price $383,683

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-248	-5% $-382	+0% $-517	+5% $-651	+10% $-786
Rent	-10% $-821	-5% $-669	+0% $-517	+5% $-365	+10% $-213
Rate	-1.0pp $-278	-0.5pp $-396	base $-517	+0.5pp $-640	+1.0pp $-765

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $118,750
• Closing costs: $14,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5032 Arancia Ln Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1525	$2,595	$1.70	14d	1	0.05mi
5104 Salerno St Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2341	$5,595	$2.39	24d	1	0.17mi
5013 Florence Dr Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2256	$2,900	$1.29	24d	1	0.32mi
5077 Gambero Way Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2256	$3,950	$1.75	24d	1	0.41mi
4546 Battlecreek Way Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2104	$3,900	$1.85	24d	1	0.41mi
5039 Frattina St Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	2341	$5,995	$2.56	24d	1	0.41mi
5285 Marano Dr Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2256	$2,600	$1.15	24d	1	0.42mi
5065 Gambero Way Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2557	$3,250	$1.27	22d	1	0.42mi
5293 Marano Dr Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2256	$3,400	$1.51	22d	1	0.44mi
4843 Frattina St Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2588	$3,300	$1.28	24d	1	0.49mi
5265 Messina St Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	1929	$4,995	$2.59	24d	1	0.50mi
4919 Frattina St Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2350	$3,300	$1.40	24d	1	0.52mi
4881 Gambero Way Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2037	$2,800	$1.37	11d	1	0.56mi
4925 Gambero Way Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1525	$4,000	$2.62	24d	1	0.59mi
5089 Penella Ave Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2028	$2,300	$1.13	14d	1	0.61mi
4957 Gambero Way Unit 4957 Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	1500	$3,400	$2.27	12d	1	0.62mi
5322 Nevola Ave Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	1918	$2,700	$1.41	14d	1	0.62mi
5068 Annunciation Cir #4201 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1266	$3,400	$2.69	24d	1	0.64mi
5187 Nevola Ave Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	1680	$2,700	$1.61	22d	1	0.65mi
5080 Annunciation Cir #1306 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1700	$4,500	$2.65	24d	1	0.68mi
5376 Fancourt Links Way Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.5	1850	$6,850	$3.70	22d	1	0.68mi
5114 Penella Ave Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2599	$3,195	$1.23	22d	1	0.69mi
5374 Ferris Ave Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	1933	$2,350	$1.22	24d	1	0.72mi
5522 Hampton Links Ct Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.5	1850	$3,995	$2.16	24d	1	0.75mi
5412 Fancourt Links Way Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2247	$8,000	$3.56	22d	1	0.78mi
5545 Hampton Links Ct Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2247	$8,500	$3.78	24d	1	0.79mi
5545 Hampton Links Ct #5545 Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2400	$9,000	$3.75	24d	1	0.79mi
5120 Nevola Ave Ave Maria, FL	4.0	3.0	2273	$3,500	$1.54	12d	1	0.79mi
5538 Hampton Links Ct Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	2247	$6,295	$2.80	22d	1	0.79mi
5538 Useppa Dr Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.5	1850	$10,995	$5.94	24d	1	0.80mi
5435 Pikewood Ct Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.5	1850	$3,695	$2.00	22d	1	0.81mi
5428 Fancourt Links Way Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	2247	$7,895	$3.51	22d	1	0.82mi
4390 Battlecreek Way Ave Maria, FL	4.0	2.5	2060	$3,295	$1.60	24d	1	0.85mi
5444 Fancourt Links Way Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	2247	$3,995	$1.78	22d	1	0.85mi
5515 Whistling Straights Ct Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2419	$6,500	$2.69	22d	1	0.88mi
5527 Double Eagle Cir Unit 3838 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1301	$2,295	$1.76	24d	1	0.89mi
5583 Double Eagle Cir Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1239	$2,495	$2.01	24d	1	0.89mi
5427 Double Eagle Cir #2826 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1569	$6,495	$4.14	24d	1	0.90mi
5427 Double Eagle Cir #2815 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1400	$2,700	$1.93	24d	1	0.90mi
5445 Double Eagle Cir Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$2,995	$2.21	24d	1	0.90mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $168 · $2,016/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $475,000 Active 101 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $475,000 Active 100 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $475,000 Active 99 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $475,000 Active 98 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $475,000 Active 96 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $475,000 Active 93 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $475,000 Active 92 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $475,000 Active 91 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $475,000 Active 90 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $475,000 Active 86 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $475,000 Active 85 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $475,000 Active 84 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $475,000 Active 83 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $475,000 Active 82 DOM
15. 2026-03-09
    listed $475,000 Active
16. 2023-08-18
    soldstatus $457,500
17. 2023-08-17
    soldstatus $457,500 Sold 508-char remark

    Show marketing remark (508 chars)

    Welcome home to this impeccably kept three bedroom+den, single family house in Maple Ridge, best selling community of Ave Maria. This one story home boosts an entire reverse osmosis water system, zebra blinds, three full bathrooms (secondary bathroom is customized with a walk-in glass shower), utility sink with a front loading washer/dryer combo, and a screened-in lanai with an additional 12 feet of extended pavers- perfect for your backyard cook-outs. Come and see this gorgeous home for yourself today!

18. 2023-07-11
    status Pending With Contingencies 508-char remark

    Show marketing remark (508 chars)

    Welcome home to this impeccably kept three bedroom+den, single family house in Maple Ridge, best selling community of Ave Maria. This one story home boosts an entire reverse osmosis water system, zebra blinds, three full bathrooms (secondary bathroom is customized with a walk-in glass shower), utility sink with a front loading washer/dryer combo, and a screened-in lanai with an additional 12 feet of extended pavers- perfect for your backyard cook-outs. Come and see this gorgeous home for yourself today!

19. 2023-07-08
    listed $480,000 Active 508-char remark

    Show marketing remark (508 chars)

    Welcome home to this impeccably kept three bedroom+den, single family house in Maple Ridge, best selling community of Ave Maria. This one story home boosts an entire reverse osmosis water system, zebra blinds, three full bathrooms (secondary bathroom is customized with a walk-in glass shower), utility sink with a front loading washer/dryer combo, and a screened-in lanai with an additional 12 feet of extended pavers- perfect for your backyard cook-outs. Come and see this gorgeous home for yourself today!

20. 2022-11-15
    historical
21. 2022-10-12
    status Active
22. 2022-10-12
    historical
23. 2022-09-10
    price $459,990
24. 2022-07-15
    price $459,999
25. 2022-06-29
    listed $460,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,608 · $551/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,608 · $551/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AH · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $46,217
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,607
• − Property taxes: −$6,608
• − Insurance: −$4,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,697
• − Management: −$3,697
• − HOA: −$2,016
• − Depreciation: −$13,818
• Taxable loss: −$14,426
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,462
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,741/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ave Maria

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ave Maria, FL
• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,149
• Household income: $62,333
• Rent vs Own: 48.7% rent · 51.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1093.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% Two or more races 39% Black 19% White 16% Native American 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 43% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 8% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 34% English-only · Spanish 53% French/Haitian/Cajun 12%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.05%
• Current HPI: 226.9105
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.95%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+3.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-09 Listed $475,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2023-08-18 Sold (Public Records) $457,500 Public Records
• 2023-08-17 Sold (MLS) $457,500 NAPLESMLS
• 2023-07-11 Pending — NAPLESMLS
• 2023-07-08 Listed $480,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2022-11-15 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2022-10-12 Relisted — FORTMLS
• 2022-10-12 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2022-09-10 Price Changed $459,990 FORTMLS
• 2022-07-15 Price Changed $459,999 FORTMLS
• 2022-06-29 Listed $460,000 FORTMLS

Property tax history

+18.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,608 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.