3126 Lone Tree Way

Antioch, CA 94509

$3,850,000D

None bd · None ba · 13,456 sqft · Built 1963 · MultiFamily · Active · 181 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $31,655/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$20,190
• Tax + insurance: −$3,435
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$6,648
• Net cashflow: $1,383/mo
• Annual: $16,592/yr
• Cap rate: 6.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.54%
• DSCR: 1.07
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $1,078,000

Investor read

• This is a multifamily listed at $3.85M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $3.17M (17.8% below list).
• It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($3.39M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $3.17M (17.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $27k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $116k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#782 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Antioch Unified (suburban): math 29% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #200 of 517 in CA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Belshaw Elementary (434 students, 79% FRL); Park Middle (996 students, 85% FRL); Antioch High (math 22% / reading 57%, grade F, #532 of 1,170 statewide, top 48%, 1,960 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 57% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 212 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 9 sale attempts since 28y ago; this cycle's ask is 217414% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $1.40M; list at $3.85M implies a 175% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.9% in Antioch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $31,655/mo this rent would consume 441% of the median local household income ($86k/yr) (locally 3063% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.