3126 Lone Tree Way · Antioch, CA 94509

$3,850,000

None bd · None ba · 13,456 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 181 Days on market

Built 1963 0.44 ac lot $286/sqft · 193% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (5+ Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

5+ unit building — per-unit beds/baths from public records are typically unavailable; the breakdown below (if shown) is an estimate from the listing text.

Listing remarks MLS

www.3126lonetreewy.com; $100K Price Improvement: Ideal Unit Mix Comprised of Fourteen 2bd/1bth and Two 3bd/2bth Units; Low Annual Expenses All Units Separately Metered for Water, Gas, & Electric; Building Entirely Remodeled Inside and Out Within Last Five Years Including New Roof and All Units Fully Remodeled; Private Balconies, Covered Parking, and Easy Additional Revenue Through Implementation of RUBS & Storage Income; Up and Coming Area Near Shopping and Commercial Businesses; Email Agent on Website For Complete Marketing Package.

Key facts

• New floors
• Completely remodeled
• Remodeled units

Tags

• COMPLETELY REMODELED
• NEW ROOF
• DUAL PANE WINDOWS
• REMODELED UNITS
• NEW FLOORS
• NEW CABINETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a multifamily listed at $3.85M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $3.17M (17.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $3.17M (17.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.9% in Antioch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#782 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Antioch Unified (suburban): math 29% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #200 of 517 in CA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Belshaw Elementary (434 students, 79% FRL); Park Middle (996 students, 85% FRL); Antioch High (math 22% / reading 57%, grade F, #532 of 1,170 statewide, top 48%, 1,960 students, 81% FRL) — zoned schools average 82% FRL vs 57% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 212 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,169 units permitted in Contra Costa County in 2024 (896 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $31,655/mo this rent would consume 441% of the median local household income ($86k/yr) (locally 3063% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $27k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $116k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Contra Costa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($3.39M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 28y ago; this cycle's ask is 217414% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $1.40M; list at $3.85M implies a 175% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $3,165,500 (17.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.54%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,315,344
• List price: $3,850,000
• Delta: 192.70%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-596,858
• Equity at exit: $574,048

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-647,597
• Equity at exit: $332,878

Cash invested: $1,078,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94509

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 212
• Price-to-rent: 164.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $31,655 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$20,190
• Tax from tax record: −$1,831 /mo · $21,970/yr
• Insurance: −$1,604
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$6,648
• Net cashflow: $1,383

Break-even live

Break-even rent $29,905

Max offer price $3,850,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $3,562	-5% $2,472	+0% $1,383	+5% $293	+10% $-797
Rent	-10% $-1,118	-5% $132	+0% $1,383	+5% $2,633	+10% $3,883
Rate	-1.0pp $3,322	-0.5pp $2,362	base $1,383	+0.5pp $385	+1.0pp $-630

16-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 14× units	2	1	$27,244
▸ 2× units	3	2	$4,408
Total (16 units)			$31,655

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $962,500
• Closing costs: $115,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-03-22
   price $1,600
2. 2026-03-08
   price $1,695
3. 2026-02-06
   price $1,725
4. 2026-01-26
   price $1,750
5. 2026-01-20
   listed $1,770
6. 2026-01-13
   historical $1,770
7. 2026-01-07
   price $3,850,000 547-char remark

   Show marketing remark (547 chars)

   www.3126lonetreewy.com; $100K Price Improvement: Ideal Unit Mix Comprised of Fourteen 2bd/1bth and Two 3bd/2bth Units; Low Annual Expenses All Units Separately Metered for Water, Gas, & Electric; Building Entirely Remodeled Inside and Out Within Last Five Years Including New Roof and All Units Fully Remodeled; Private Balconies, Covered Parking, and Easy Additional Revenue Through Implementation of RUBS & Storage Income; Up and Coming Area Near Shopping and Commercial Businesses; Email Agent on Website For Complete Marketing Package.

8. 2026-01-03
   listed $1,795
9. 2025-12-21
   historical $1,795
10. 2025-12-05
    price $1,795
11. 2025-12-03
    listed $1,800
12. 2025-12-02
    historical $1,800
13. 2025-11-26
    listed $1,800

    Show marketing remark (547 chars)

    www.3126lonetreewy.com; $100K Price Improvement: Ideal Unit Mix Comprised of Fourteen 2bd/1bth and Two 3bd/2bth Units; Low Annual Expenses All Units Separately Metered for Water, Gas, & Electric; Building Entirely Remodeled Inside and Out Within Last Five Years Including New Roof and All Units Fully Remodeled; Private Balconies, Covered Parking, and Easy Additional Revenue Through Implementation of RUBS & Storage Income; Up and Coming Area Near Shopping and Commercial Businesses; Email Agent on Website For Complete Marketing Package.

14. 2025-11-26
    listed $3,950,000 Active 547-char remark

    Show marketing remark (547 chars)

    www.3126lonetreewy.com; $100K Price Improvement: Ideal Unit Mix Comprised of Fourteen 2bd/1bth and Two 3bd/2bth Units; Low Annual Expenses All Units Separately Metered for Water, Gas, & Electric; Building Entirely Remodeled Inside and Out Within Last Five Years Including New Roof and All Units Fully Remodeled; Private Balconies, Covered Parking, and Easy Additional Revenue Through Implementation of RUBS & Storage Income; Up and Coming Area Near Shopping and Commercial Businesses; Email Agent on Website For Complete Marketing Package.

15. 2025-02-18
    historical $1,700
16. 2024-12-24
    listed $1,700
17. 2014-04-01
    soldstatus $1,400,000
18. 2014-04-01
    soldstatus $14,000,000
19. 2013-03-05
    listed $1,550,000
20. 1999-08-18
    historical
21. 1998-01-07
    listed $830,000
22. 1998-01-07
    listed $830,000
23. 1985-07-19
    soldstatus $391,000
24. 1985-02-25
    soldstatus $585,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $21,970 · $1,831/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $29,260 · $2,438/mo
• Expected delta: +$7,290/yr (+$608/mo · 33.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 19 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $379,860
• − Mortgage interest: −$215,660
• − Property taxes: −$21,970
• − Insurance: −$19,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$30,389
• − Management: −$30,389
• − Depreciation: −$112,000
• Taxable loss: −$49,797
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$11,951
• After-tax cash flow: $28,543/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Antioch Unified
• NCES district ID: 0602850
• Math proficiency: 29% ▲ 12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 25.00%
• Median HH income: $65,935
• Composite: 37.57/100
• National rank: #4386
• State rank: #200 of 517 in CA

Livability — Antioch

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #782
• US rank: #22472

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Antioch, CA
• County: Contra Costa County · 1,059,880 people
• City population: 116,477
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 70,090
• Household income: $86,196
• Rent vs Own: 42.0% rent · 58.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 3063.0

Population outlook (Contra Costa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,287,720 people
• By 2030: 1,364,937 · +6.0%
• By 2040: 1,506,209 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 1,624,373 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,853,193 · +43.9%
• By 2100: 1,901,231 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 43% White 25% Two or more races 18% Black 16% Asian 9% Native American 2% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 29% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Contra Costa

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 67.3% · R 29.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 37.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+45.3 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+33.7 2008: D+37.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -477.30%
• Current HPI: 309.3499
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.09%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-99.7% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-22 Price Changed $1,600 RENTALBEAST
• 2026-03-08 Price Changed $1,695 RENTALBEAST
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $1,725 RENTALBEAST
• 2026-01-26 Price Changed $1,750 RENTALBEAST
• 2026-01-20 Listed for Rent $1,770 RENTALBEAST
• 2026-01-13 Rental Removed $1,770 RENTALBEAST
• 2026-01-07 Price Changed $3,850,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-01-03 Listed for Rent $1,795 RENTALBEAST
• 2025-12-21 Rental Removed $1,795 RENTALBEAST
• 2025-12-05 Price Changed $1,795 RENTALBEAST
• 2025-12-03 Listed for Rent $1,800 RENTALBEAST
• 2025-12-02 Rental Removed $1,800 PROPERTYWARE
• 2025-11-26 Listed for Rent $1,800 PROPERTYWARE
• 2025-11-26 Listed $3,950,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-02-18 Rental Removed $1,700 PROPERTYWARE
• 2024-12-24 Listed for Rent $1,700 PROPERTYWARE
• 2014-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $14,000,000 Public Records
• 2014-04-01 Sold (MLS) $1,400,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2013-03-05 Listed $1,550,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1999-08-18 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1998-01-07 Listed $830,000 San Francisco MLS
• 1998-01-07 Listed $830,000 San Francisco MLS
• 1985-07-19 Sold (Public Records) $391,000 Public Records
• 1985-02-25 Sold (Public Records) $585,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $21,970 · +9.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.