Aria Plan

Somers Point, NJ 08244

$434,990F

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,715 sqft · Built — · Townhouse · Active · 157 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,506
• Tax + insurance: −$1,432
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$840
• Net cashflow: $-2,778/mo
• Annual: $-33,334/yr
• Cap rate: 2.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.86%
• DSCR: 0.38
• 1% rule: 0.47%
• Cash to close: $240,580

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $435k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-33k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $400k (8.0% below list).
• It's been on market 157 days — a 12% lower offer ($383k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $383k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $26k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#314 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, cost of living D, amenities F.
• Somers Point School District (suburban): math 9% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #423 of 472 in NJ (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Jordan Road Elementary School (math 10% / reading 37%, grade F, #372 of 431 statewide, top 87%, 384 students, 59% FRL); Jordan Road Elementary School (math 10% / reading 37%, grade F, #372 of 431 statewide, top 87%, 384 students, 59% FRL); Mainland Regional High School (math 34% / reading 55%, grade F, #149 of 399 statewide, top 40%, 1,181 students, 19% FRL).
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Market conditions: 102 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 672 units permitted in Atlantic County in 2024 (258 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Atlantic County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Cap rate 2.4% vs local median 3.2% in Somers Point — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 157 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.