Aria Plan · Somers Point, NJ 08244

$434,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,715 sqft · Townhouse · 157 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Cash flow +3.0/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the Aria at The Links at Greate Bay - your exclusive opportunity to own a new townhome set in a beautiful golf course environment, just 4 miles from the Ocean City boardwalk. Take in breathtaking golf course views, and enjoy a complimentary 1-year social membership at Greate Bay Country Club when you purchase your new home! The Aria is where coastal charm meets modern comfort. This beautifully designed 1-car garage townhome offers the space and natural light of a single-family home, all within a beautiful, low-maintenance setting. Step inside through the ground-level foyer and discover a spacious recreation room, perfect for hosting guests, creating a home office, or adding an

Key facts

• Large center island
• Gourmet kitchen
• Golf course views

Tags

• GOLF COURSE VIEWS
• SPACIOUS RECREATION ROOM
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• LARGE CENTER ISLAND
• DECK FOR OUTDOOR DINING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $434,990

Exterior

• Utilities: Central air conditioning
• Home design: Plan: Aria; New construction plan

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Heating & cooling: Central air
• Interior features: Central air conditioning

🏗️ New construction. The $434,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $859,215.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $435k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-33k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $400k (8.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $383k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 2.4% vs local median 3.2% in Somers Point — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#314 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, cost of living D, amenities F.
• Somers Point School District (suburban): math 9% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #423 of 472 in NJ (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Jordan Road Elementary School (math 10% / reading 37%, grade F, #372 of 431 statewide, top 87%, 384 students, 59% FRL); Jordan Road Elementary School (math 10% / reading 37%, grade F, #372 of 431 statewide, top 87%, 384 students, 59% FRL); Mainland Regional High School (math 34% / reading 55%, grade F, #149 of 399 statewide, top 40%, 1,181 students, 19% FRL).
• Market conditions: 102 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 672 units permitted in Atlantic County in 2024 (258 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $26k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Atlantic County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 157 days — a 12% lower offer ($383k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.

Recommended offer $382,791 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 157 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.47% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.86%
• DSCR: 0.38
• GRM: 17.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $859,215
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
122 South Pointe #122	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,747 (+2%)	8mo	$890,000	$509	62
102 South Pointe #102	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,747 (+2%)	15mo	$875,000	$501	56
18 Greate Bay Dr Dr #18	0.70mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,650 (-4%)	6mo	$515,000	$312	51
18 Greate Bay Dr	0.70mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,650 (-4%)	6mo	$515,000	$312	51
120 South Pointe Dr #120 South Pointe Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,600 (-7%)	12mo	$855,000	$534	50
120 South Pointe Dr #120	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,600 (-7%)	12mo	$855,000	$534	50
81 Greate Bay Dr #81	0.53mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,650 (-4%)	19mo	$514,000	$312	48
84 Greate Bay Dr #84	0.72mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,650 (-4%)	17mo	$470,000	$285	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -42.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.31×
• Total profit: $-316,092
• Equity at exit: $128,112

10-year hold

• IRR: -72.8%
• Equity multiple: -1.09×
• Total profit: $-502,817
• Equity at exit: $74,289

Cash invested: $240,580 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08244

• Active inventory: 102
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,506
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,074 /mo · $12,888/yr
• Insurance: −$358
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$840
• Net cashflow: $-2,778

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,516

Max offer price $457,257

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-2,184	-5% $-2,481	+0% $-2,778	+5% $-3,075	+10% $-3,372
Rent	-10% $-3,094	-5% $-2,936	+0% $-2,778	+5% $-2,620	+10% $-2,462
Rate	-1.0pp $-2,345	-0.5pp $-2,559	base $-2,778	+0.5pp $-3,000	+1.0pp $-3,227

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $214,804
• Closing costs: $25,776
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
426 7th St Somers Point, NJ	4.0	2.5	1620	$4,000	$2.47	23d	1	1.05mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $434,990 Active 157 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $434,990 Active 156 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $434,990 Active 155 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $434,990 Active 153 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $434,990 Active 152 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $434,990 Active 151 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $434,990 Active 150 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $434,990 Active 148 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $434,990 Active 147 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $434,990 Active 144 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $434,990 Active 143 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $434,990 Active 142 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $434,990 Active 141 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $434,990 Active 138 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $434,990 Active 137 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $434,990 Active 136 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $434,990 Active 135 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$48,129
• − Property taxes: −$12,888
• − Insurance: −$4,296
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,840
• − Management: −$3,840
• − Depreciation: −$24,995
• Taxable loss: −$49,989
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$11,997
• After-tax cash flow: $-21,337/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Somers Point School District
• NCES district ID: 3415030
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $50,191
• Composite: 18.66/100
• National rank: #8889
• State rank: #423 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Somers Point

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #314
• US rank: #9650

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime C- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Somers Point, NJ
• City population: 10,611
• Population (ZIP): 10,611

Population outlook (Atlantic County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 268,948 people
• By 2030: 264,497 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 252,261 · -6.2%
• By 2050: 237,846 · -11.6%
• By 2075: 210,650 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 180,234 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 11% Black 9% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Iranian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 8% Chinese 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Atlantic

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 50.7% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: 15.1pp · 2024: -3.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.0 2020: D+6.7 2016: D+6.2 2012: D+17.2 2008: D+15.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -340.51%
• Current HPI: 377.2289
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B