7235 W Cactus Flower Pass

Marana, AZ 85658

$539,000D

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 2,550 sqft · Built 2015 · SingleFamily · Active · 91 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,968/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,827
• Tax + insurance: −$732
• HOA: −$69
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$833
• Net cashflow: $-492/mo
• Annual: $-5,910/yr
• Cap rate: 5.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.92%
• DSCR: 0.83
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $150,920

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $539k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-492 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $452k (16.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $397k (26.4% below list).
• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($490k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $397k (26.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#67 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Marana Unified District (4404) (suburban): math 31% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #83 of 249 in AZ (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ironwood Elementary School (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #271 of 1,109 statewide, top 26%, 385 students, 40% FRL); Tortolita Middle School (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #116 of 218 statewide, top 54%, 539 students, 45% FRL); Mountain View High School (math 24% / reading 30%, grade F, #141 of 381 statewide, top 38%, 1,831 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools at 39% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 468 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.3% in Marana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($123k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.