844 Strain Blvd

Lakeland, FL 33815

$114,995A-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,488 sqft · Built 1997 · Manufactured · Pending · 30 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,744/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax + insurance: −$122
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $653/mo
• Annual: $7,835/yr
• Cap rate: 13.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.33%
• DSCR: 2.08
• 1% rule: 1.52%
• Cash to close: $32,199

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $653 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $113k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($795 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 72 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 6 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $115k implies a 303% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 6.1% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $1,744/mo this rent would consume 56% of the median local household income ($37k/yr) (locally 700% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.