844 Strain Blvd · Lakeland, FL 33815

$114,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,488 sqft · Manufactured public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1997 0.28 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This double wide 1997 Homes of Merit Mobile Home is spacious with a 3 bedroom, 2 bath split plan. There is plenty of room to spread out under your covered porch or enclosed front screened room. Home includes a 2 car covered back carport, inside utility, fireplace, and garden tub in the master bath. This home is conveniently located on the bus line, walking distance to shopping, and minutes to major roadways. This is a Fannie Mae Homepath property.

Key facts

• 0.28 acre lot
• Built 1997
• Listed 30 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.28 acres (100 x 124); Living area about 1,488 square feet
• Financial info: No lease restrictions; Taxes not included per instructions
• HOA & community: No association (no HOA)

Exterior

• Parking: No parking details provided
• Security: No security features listed
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; High-speed internet available; Cable available and connected
• Home design: Residential manufactured double-wide; One story; East-facing
• Construction: Shingle roof; Other construction materials; Other foundation details; Built on one level
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Other cooling
• Interior features: Decorative fireplace; No additional interior features listed
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area (other)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $653 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 72 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,744/mo this rent would consume 56% of the median local household income ($37k/yr) (locally 700% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($795 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 6.1% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $115k implies a 303% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,270 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.33%
• DSCR: 2.08
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 6.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 44.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.41×
• Total profit: $109,879
• Equity at exit: $103,597

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.6%
• Equity multiple: 10.44×
• Total profit: $303,927
• Equity at exit: $223,410

Cash invested: $32,199 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33815

• Home prices YoY: 12.6%
• Rents YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 72
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,744 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$74 /mo · $884/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$366
• Net cashflow: $653

Break-even live

Break-even rent $917

Max offer price $114,995

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,749
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
806 N Swindell Ave Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	995	$1,450	$1.46	23d	1	0.26mi
2117 Ivey Ln Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.0	1160	$1,980	$1.71	23d	1	0.32mi
815 N Davis Ave Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	960	$1,450	$1.51	23d	1	0.37mi
1137 Edith Ave Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	3d	1	0.48mi
738 N Lorri Ave Lakeland, FL	4.0	2.5	1500	$2,600	$1.73	14d	1	0.54mi
2340 Shasta St Lakeland, FL	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.0	2098	$2,185	$1.04	3d	3	0.57mi
1105 Jewel Ave Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	987	$1,200	$1.22	23d	1	0.61mi
2259 Chestnut Woods Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	1001	$1,400	$1.40	14d	1	0.69mi
1128 Neville Ave Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1245	$1,900	$1.53	14d	1	0.72mi
2463 Chestnut Woods Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	910	$1,500	$1.65	23d	1	0.73mi
2559 Chestnut Woods Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	1001	$1,500	$1.50	14d	1	0.80mi
515 Oregon Ave Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1024	$1,500	$1.46	3d	1	1.14mi
1550 Wright Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.5	1139	$1,650	$1.45	21d	1	1.19mi
1618 Wayman St Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.0	994	$1,750	$1.76	23d	1	1.20mi
1335 W Walnut St Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1626	$1,800	$1.11	3d	1	1.20mi
1149 Sycamore St Unit 1149 Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	970	$1,700	$1.75	23d	1	1.26mi
512 Dade Ave Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	936	$1,149	$1.23	23d	1	1.26mi
510 Dade Ave Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	936	$1,149	$1.23	14d	1	1.26mi
1139 Olive St Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	984	$1,725	$1.75	3d	1	1.30mi
518 Pinewood Ave Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	891	$1,175	$1.32	23d	1	1.31mi
809 Adams St Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.0	1164	$1,525	$1.31	14d	1	1.35mi
1238 Herschell St Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	1323	$1,300	$0.98	23d	1	1.35mi
1211 Robert King High Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.5	1050	$1,625	$1.55	23d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-05
   status $114,995 Pending 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $114,995 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $114,995 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $114,995 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $114,995 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-05-18
   price $114,995
7. 2026-05-04
   listed $125,000 Active
8. 2013-11-19
   soldstatus $28,500 451-char remark

   Show marketing remark (451 chars)

   This double wide 1997 Homes of Merit Mobile Home is spacious with a 3 bedroom, 2 bath split plan. There is plenty of room to spread out under your covered porch or enclosed front screened room. Home includes a 2 car covered back carport, inside utility, fireplace, and garden tub in the master bath. This home is conveniently located on the bus line, walking distance to shopping, and minutes to major roadways. This is a Fannie Mae Homepath property.

9. 2013-10-06
   listed $30,900 451-char remark

   Show marketing remark (451 chars)

   This double wide 1997 Homes of Merit Mobile Home is spacious with a 3 bedroom, 2 bath split plan. There is plenty of room to spread out under your covered porch or enclosed front screened room. Home includes a 2 car covered back carport, inside utility, fireplace, and garden tub in the master bath. This home is conveniently located on the bus line, walking distance to shopping, and minutes to major roadways. This is a Fannie Mae Homepath property.

10. 2009-03-09
    historical
11. 2008-08-10
    listed $35,000
12. 2008-03-11
    historical
13. 2008-02-11
    listed $79,900
14. 2005-10-18
    listed $84,000
15. 2004-11-09
    historical
16. 2004-08-21
    listed $87,000
17. 1979-10-01
    soldstatus $27,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $884 · $74/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $954 · $80/mo
• Expected delta: +$71/yr (+$6/mo · 8.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,924
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$884
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,674
• − Management: −$1,674
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $6,331
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,519
• After-tax cash flow: $6,316/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #3179

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 277,690
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 13,975
• Household income: $37,487
• Rent vs Own: 40.4% rent · 59.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 700.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 10% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% German 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 23% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 47.45%
• Current HPI: 424.0956
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.14%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+325.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $114,995 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-04 Listed $125,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-11-19 Sold (MLS) $28,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-10-06 Listed $30,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-03-09 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-08-10 Listed $35,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-03-11 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-02-11 Listed $79,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-10-18 Listed $84,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-11-09 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-08-21 Listed $87,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1979-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $27,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $884 · +17.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.