309 Currin Rd

Durham, NC 27703

$175,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 660 sqft · Built 1961 · SingleFamily · Active · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,465/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax + insurance: −$182
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $58/mo
• Annual: $693/yr
• Cap rate: 6.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.41%
• DSCR: 1.06
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $49,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $58 ($693/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $146k (16.3% below list).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $146k (16.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#15 in NC, #1,411 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Durham Public Schools (urban): math 29% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #132 of 178 in NC (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Holt Elementary (math 10% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,280 of 1,410 statewide, top 91%, 636 students, 83% FRL); Neal Middle (math 6% / reading 19%, grade F, #468 of 475 statewide, top 99%, 789 students, 100% FRL); Southern School of Energy And Sustainabi (math 28% / reading 30%, grade F, #465 of 535 statewide, top 87%, 1,283 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 94% FRL vs 58% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 20% at this address vs 34% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Durham Public Schools average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1122 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,905 units permitted in Durham County in 2024 (955 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Durham County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.0% in Durham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.