309 Currin Rd · Durham, NC 27703

$175,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 660 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1961

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

For Sale By Owner & acirc; & euro; & ldquo; Investor Special on Private Lot! $175,000 or Best Offer Great opportunity to finish and profit on this partially renovated home located on a quiet dead-end street. Situated on approximately 0.47 acres with no neighbors on either side, this property offers rare privacy and excellent upside potential. The home features 2 bedrooms and 1 bath (approx. 660 sq ft) and has been taken down to the studs, providing a blank canvas for your custom rebuild. A foundation is already in place for a rear addition, saving both time and construction costs. Major improvements have already been started, including most rough-in plumbing and electrical wor

Key facts

• Private lot
• Built 1961
• Listed 14 days

Tags

• PRIVATE LOT
• QUIET DEAD-END STREET
• APPROXIMATELY 0.47 ACRES
• NO NEIGHBORS ON EITHER SIDE
• PARTIALLY RENOVATED HOME
• FOUNDATION FOR REAR ADDITION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $58 ($693/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $146k (16.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $146k (16.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.0% in Durham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#15 in NC, #1,411 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Durham Public Schools (urban): math 29% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #132 of 178 in NC (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Holt Elementary (math 10% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,280 of 1,410 statewide, top 91%, 636 students, 83% FRL); Neal Middle (math 6% / reading 19%, grade F, #468 of 475 statewide, top 99%, 789 students, 100% FRL); Southern School of Energy And Sustainabi (math 28% / reading 30%, grade F, #465 of 535 statewide, top 87%, 1,283 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 94% FRL vs 58% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 20% at this address vs 34% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Durham Public Schools average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1122 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,905 units permitted in Durham County in 2024 (955 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Durham County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $146,472 (16.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.41%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.84% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-27,843
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-31,941
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27703

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 1122
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,465 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$109 /mo · $1,305/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $58

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,392

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $157	-5% $107	+0% $58	+5% $8	+10% $-41
Rent	-10% $-58	-5% $0	+0% $58	+5% $116	+10% $173
Rate	-1.0pp $146	-0.5pp $102	base $58	+0.5pp $12	+1.0pp $-34

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-12
   listed $175,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,305 · $109/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,435 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: +$130/yr (+$11/mo · 9.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,577
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$1,305
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,406
• − Management: −$1,406
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$2,310
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$554
• After-tax cash flow: $1,247/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Durham Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3701260
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $52,143
• Composite: 29.69/100
• National rank: #6457
• State rank: #132 of 178 in NC

Livability — Durham

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #1411

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B+ Crime F Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Durham County · 288,747 people
• City population: 288,747
• Metro: Durham-Chapel Hill, NC
• Population (ZIP): 63,458
• Household income: $89,317
• Rent vs Own: 34.0% rent · 66.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1685.0

Population outlook (Durham County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 368,962 people
• By 2030: 402,686 · +9.1%
• By 2040: 468,677 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 531,727 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 660,446 · +79.0%
• By 2100: 739,971 · +100.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 40% White 32% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 9% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Swiss 2% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Durham

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+61.9) · D 80.2% · R 18.2% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.0pp toward D · 2008: 51.9pp · 2024: 61.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+61.9 2020: D+62.4 2016: D+60.4 2012: D+52.7 2008: D+51.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -129.81%
• Current HPI: 206.7413
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.84%
• Metro: Durham-Chapel Hill, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $175,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+7.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,305 · +20.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.