1281 Hickory Hills Dr

Callender Lake, TX 75778

$89,000B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 728 sqft · Built 1992 · Manufactured · Active · 117 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,127/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax + insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$38
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$237
• Net cashflow: $293/mo
• Annual: $3,522/yr
• Cap rate: 10.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.13%
• DSCR: 1.63
• 1% rule: 1.27%
• Cash to close: $24,920

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $89k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $293 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $89k).
• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($81k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $81k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($615 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (4.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,447 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Van ISD (rural): math 40% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 54 units permitted in Van Zandt County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Van Zandt County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 10 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $89k implies a 465% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (4.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 53% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 3.2% in Callender Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.