1281 Hickory Hills Dr · Callender Lake, TX 75778

$89,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 728 sqft · Manufactured public records · 117 Days on market

Built 1992 7,492 sqft lot $122/sqft · 256% above area $38/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.6/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.3/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come see this one today. Totally updated 1992, 2 bedroom, 1 bath home. Home was taken down to bare walls and all new wood, flooring, plumbing, electrical, kitchen, bathroom, fresh paint inside and out etc. You are basically getting a 1992 mobile home with pretty much all new materials. Storage building on the property houses a space for washer and dryer and still has plenty of storage room. Roof trim and roof on the storage building does not leak but could use some TLC. Large new 10x33 foot deck-porch will be great to sit out and enjoy the cool breeze and watch nature on the large ranch behind the home. Yard has been fenced for small pets. Home is ready with water, electric, and septic ready for you to move in. The Hickory Hills subdivision is located on the beautiful 365 acre spring fed Callender Lake. The community has great fishing, swimming, boating, children's park, community pool, boat ramp, fishing pier, and children's park. Come see this great property today.

Key facts

• New plumbing
• New kitchen
• New bathroom

Tags

• UPDATED HOME
• NEW WOOD FLOORING
• NEW PLUMBING
• NEW ELECTRICAL
• NEW KITCHEN
• NEW BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $89k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $293 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $89k).
• Recommended offer: $81k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 3.2% in Callender Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,447 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Van ISD (rural): math 40% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 109 active listings in the ZIP; 54 units permitted in Van Zandt County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($615 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (4.6% local appreciation)).
• Van Zandt County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (4.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($81k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $89k implies a 465% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 53% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $80,990 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.13%
• DSCR: 1.63
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $25,000
• List price: $89,000
• Delta: 256.00%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
140 Rosebud Ln	0.69mi	2/1.0	768 (+6%)	3mo	$25,000	$33	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.59% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.49×
• Total profit: $37,141
• Equity at exit: $48,234

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.90×
• Total profit: $97,172
• Equity at exit: $81,480

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75778

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 109
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,127 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $662/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$237
• Net cashflow: $293

Break-even live

Break-even rent $756

Max offer price $89,000

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr
• Likely covers: waterelectricpool

Listing history 42 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $89,000 Active 117 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,000 Active 116 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,000 Active 115 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,000 Active 114 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,000 Active 113 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,000 Active 111 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,000 Active 110 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,000 Active 108 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,000 Active 107 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $89,000 Active 106 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,000 Active 105 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,000 Active 100 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,000 Active 99 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,000 Active 98 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $89,000 Active 97 DOM
16. 2026-02-23
    listed $89,000 Active 981-char remark

    Show marketing remark (981 chars)

    Come see this one today. Totally updated 1992, 2 bedroom, 1 bath home. Home was taken down to bare walls and all new wood, flooring, plumbing, electrical, kitchen, bathroom, fresh paint inside and out etc. You are basically getting a 1992 mobile home with pretty much all new materials. Storage building on the property houses a space for washer and dryer and still has plenty of storage room. Roof trim and roof on the storage building does not leak but could use some TLC. Large new 10x33 foot deck-porch will be great to sit out and enjoy the cool breeze and watch nature on the large ranch behind the home. Yard has been fenced for small pets. Home is ready with water, electric, and septic ready for you to move in. The Hickory Hills subdivision is located on the beautiful 365 acre spring fed Callender Lake. The community has great fishing, swimming, boating, children's park, community pool, boat ramp, fishing pier, and children's park. Come see this great property today.

17. 2026-02-22
    listed $89,000 Active 1051-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1051 chars)

    Come see this one today. Totally updated 1992 , 2 bedroom, 1 bath home. Home was taken down to bare walls and all new wood, flooring, plumbing, electrical, kitchen, bathroom, fresh paint inside and out etc. You are basically getting a 1992 manufactured home with all new materials inside and out. Storage building located on property houses the washer and dryer and still has plenty of storage space. Roof trim on the storage building needs a little TLC. Large new 10x33 foot covered porch-deck will be great to sit out and enjoy the cool breezes and nature on the large ranch behind your property. Yard has been fenced in for small pets. Home is ready to go with electric, water, and septic all ready for your use. The Hickory Hills subdivision is located on the beautiful 365 spring fed Callender Lake. The community has great fishing, swimming, boating, children's park, community swimming pool, restroom and shower facility by the pool, fishing dock, lake swim area, and much more for your enjoyment. Come see this great property today.

18. 2025-08-31
    historical
19. 2025-06-09
    price $85,000
20. 2025-06-09
    price $85,000
21. 2025-04-30
    listed $89,500 Active
22. 2024-04-01
    soldstatus Closed
23. 2024-04-01
    soldstatus
24. 2024-03-08
    historical
25. 2024-01-06
    listed $50,000 Active
26. 2023-10-16
    historical
27. 2023-08-21
    soldstatus
28. 2023-08-20
    status Active
29. 2023-08-07
    historical
30. 2023-07-15
    price $50,000
31. 2023-07-15
    price $50,000
32. 2023-06-14
    listed $50,000 Active
33. 2023-06-14
    listed $85,000 Active
34. 2023-06-14
    listed $85,000 Active
35. 2019-03-08
    soldstatus
36. 2019-02-28
    soldstatus
37. 2019-02-28
    soldstatus
38. 2019-02-28
    soldstatus
39. 2019-02-11
    listed $14,000
40. 2018-06-30
    listed $14,000
41. 2012-10-12
    soldstatus
42. 2006-10-06
    soldstatus $15,750

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $662 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,629 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: +$967/yr (+$81/mo · 146.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 53% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,525
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$662
• − Insurance: −$445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,082
• − Management: −$1,082
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable income: $2,224
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$534
• After-tax cash flow: $2,988/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Van ISD
• NCES district ID: 4843920
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $44,308
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5120
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

Livability — Callender Lake

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1447
• US rank: #24766

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B- Housing F Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Callender Lake, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,987

Population outlook (Van Zandt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,634 people
• By 2030: 56,479 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 57,672 · +3.7%
• By 2050: 57,913 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 57,544 · +3.4%
• By 2100: 52,659 · -5.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 9% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Portuguese 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Van Zandt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+74.8) · D 12.3% · R 87.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -55.1pp · 2024: -74.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+74.8 2020: R+72.1 2016: R+72.1 2012: R+66.6 2008: R+55.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.59%
• Current HPI: 216.4151
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+465.1% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-23 Listed $89,000 GTAR
• 2026-02-22 Listed $89,000 NTREIS
• 2025-08-31 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-06-09 Price Changed $85,000 NTREIS
• 2025-06-09 Price Changed $85,000 GTAR
• 2025-04-30 Listed $89,500 NTREIS
• 2024-04-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-04-01 Sold (MLS) — HCBOR
• 2024-03-08 Delisted — HCBOR
• 2024-01-06 Listed $50,000 HCBOR
• 2023-10-16 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2023-08-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-08-20 Relisted — HCBOR
• 2023-08-07 Delisted — HCBOR
• 2023-07-15 Price Changed $50,000 NTREIS
• 2023-07-15 Price Changed $50,000 HCBOR
• 2023-06-14 Listed $85,000 NTREIS
• 2023-06-14 Listed $85,000 HCBOR
• 2023-06-14 Listed $50,000 GTAR
• 2019-03-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-02-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-02-28 Sold (MLS) — HCBOR
• 2019-02-28 Sold (MLS) — GTAR
• 2019-02-11 Listed $14,000 GTAR
• 2018-06-30 Listed $14,000 HCBOR
• 2012-10-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-10-06 Sold (Public Records) $15,750 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $662 · +116.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.