3615 Dwyer Ln

Florissant, MO 63033

$294,900D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,864 sqft · Built 1964 · SingleFamily · Pending · 74 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,036/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,546
• Tax + insurance: −$403
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $-341/mo
• Annual: $-4,092/yr
• Cap rate: 4.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.96%
• DSCR: 0.78
• 1% rule: 0.69%
• Cash to close: $82,572

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $295k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-341 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $235k (20.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (30.9% below list).
• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $204k (30.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#82 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D+, schools D.
• Ferguson-Florissant R-II (suburban): math 7% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #311 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 221 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $170k; list at $295k implies a 74% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 6.3% in Florissant — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.