3615 Dwyer Ln · Florissant, MO 63033

$294,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,864 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 74 Days on market

Built 1964 0.33 ac lot $158/sqft · 57% above area Est $299k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.1/15.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This large (approx. 2974 sq ft of finished living area with 1864 sq ft on main floor) brick ranch features 5 bedrooms on main floor, 3 full bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and a partially finished lower level. Home has been totally renovated-fresh paint, remodeled kitchen and bathrooms, much new carpet and LVT flooring on the main level, new furnace, AC, and A Coil, renovated lower level with new deluxe paneling, and much more!

Key facts

• 0.33 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1964

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-341 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $235k (20.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (31.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (31.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 6.3% in Florissant — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#82 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D+, schools D.
• Ferguson-Florissant R-II (suburban): math 7% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #311 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 221 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $170k; list at $295k implies a 74% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $203,597 (31.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.96%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $298,841
• List price: $294,900
• Delta: -1.32%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1475 Hollywood Ln	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,920 (+3%)	2mo	$187,000	$97	70
2060 Aqueduct Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,001 (+7%)	1mo	$260,000	$130	67
3680 Pyrenees Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,703 (-9%)	7mo	$234,900	$138	67
33 Club Grounds South Dr	0.49mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,771 (-5%)	1mo	$235,000	$133	63
1670 Aqueduct Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,650 (-12%)	8mo	$223,500	$135	54
4 Whitney Cir	0.56mi	4/2.0	1,722 (-8%)	5mo	$254,900	$148	53
Lot 6 Wildridge Ests	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,826 (-2%)	6mo	$369,900	$203	52
1480 Stallion Dr	0.64mi	4/2.0	1,737 (-7%)	4mo	$239,900	$138	51
3642 Candlewyck Green Ct	0.70mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,765 (-5%)	9mo	$175,000	$99	46
4359 Blythewood Dr	0.69mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,684 (-10%)	5mo	$250,000	$148	43
1590 Bay Meadows Dr	0.60mi	4/2.0	1,635 (-12%)	7mo	$202,000	$124	42
3150 Parker Rd	0.73mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,707 (-8%)	6mo	$149,900	$88	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 7.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.80×
• Total profit: $148,507
• Equity at exit: $265,669

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.79×
• Total profit: $477,853
• Equity at exit: $572,926

Cash invested: $82,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63033

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 221
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,036 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,546
• Tax from tax record: −$280 /mo · $3,364/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $-341

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,468

Max offer price $234,607

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-174	-5% $-258	+0% $-341	+5% $-425	+10% $-508
Rent	-10% $-502	-5% $-422	+0% $-341	+5% $-261	+10% $-180
Rate	-1.0pp $-193	-0.5pp $-266	base $-341	+0.5pp $-418	+1.0pp $-495

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,725
• Closing costs: $8,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2075 Cordoba Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1523	$1,850	$1.21	16d	1	0.18mi
3 Cantabrian Ct Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,881	$1.31	16d	1	0.30mi
3930 Belcroft Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	3.0	1408	$1,935	$1.37	45d	1	0.51mi
1600 Horseshoe Dr Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1314	$1,550	$1.18	45d	1	0.77mi
1785 Trotter Way Florissant, MO	3.0	2.0	1297	$1,806	$1.39	8d	1	0.88mi
4440 Parker Rd Black Jack, MO	3.0	2.0	1900	$1,711	$0.90	3d	1	1.11mi
4583 Whisper Lake Dr Black Jack, MO	1.0–5.0	1.0–2.5	1225	$1,354	$1.10	3d	17	1.16mi
945 Paddock Dr Florissant, MO	4.0	2.0	1875	$1,850	$0.99	5d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 426-char remark

   Show marketing remark (426 chars)

   This large (approx. 2974 sq ft of finished living area with 1864 sq ft on main floor) brick ranch features 5 bedrooms on main floor, 3 full bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and a partially finished lower level. Home has been totally renovated-fresh paint, remodeled kitchen and bathrooms, much new carpet and LVT flooring on the main level, new furnace, AC, and A Coil, renovated lower level with new deluxe paneling, and much more!

2. 2026-04-17
   price $294,900 426-char remark

   Show marketing remark (426 chars)

   This large (approx. 2974 sq ft of finished living area with 1864 sq ft on main floor) brick ranch features 5 bedrooms on main floor, 3 full bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and a partially finished lower level. Home has been totally renovated-fresh paint, remodeled kitchen and bathrooms, much new carpet and LVT flooring on the main level, new furnace, AC, and A Coil, renovated lower level with new deluxe paneling, and much more!

3. 2026-02-27
   listed $299,900 Active 426-char remark

   Show marketing remark (426 chars)

   This large (approx. 2974 sq ft of finished living area with 1864 sq ft on main floor) brick ranch features 5 bedrooms on main floor, 3 full bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and a partially finished lower level. Home has been totally renovated-fresh paint, remodeled kitchen and bathrooms, much new carpet and LVT flooring on the main level, new furnace, AC, and A Coil, renovated lower level with new deluxe paneling, and much more!

4. 2026-02-10
   historical $299,900 426-char remark

   Show marketing remark (426 chars)

   This large (approx. 2974 sq ft of finished living area with 1864 sq ft on main floor) brick ranch features 5 bedrooms on main floor, 3 full bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and a partially finished lower level. Home has been totally renovated-fresh paint, remodeled kitchen and bathrooms, much new carpet and LVT flooring on the main level, new furnace, AC, and A Coil, renovated lower level with new deluxe paneling, and much more!

5. 2025-03-14
   soldstatus Closed 408-char remark

   Show marketing remark (408 chars)

   Don't miss this spacious ranch-style home, offering over 1800sf 4 generously sized bedrooms, 2 full baths, fireplace, partial finished basement, a fenced yard with patio, enclosed porch, and 2 car attached garage. Ideally located near amenities and major thoroughfares, this property is brimming with potential and ready for your personal finishing touches. A fantastic opportunity you won't want to pass up!

6. 2025-02-06
   status Pending 408-char remark

   Show marketing remark (408 chars)

   Don't miss this spacious ranch-style home, offering over 1800sf 4 generously sized bedrooms, 2 full baths, fireplace, partial finished basement, a fenced yard with patio, enclosed porch, and 2 car attached garage. Ideally located near amenities and major thoroughfares, this property is brimming with potential and ready for your personal finishing touches. A fantastic opportunity you won't want to pass up!

7. 2025-01-07
   listed $185,000 Active 408-char remark

   Show marketing remark (408 chars)

   Don't miss this spacious ranch-style home, offering over 1800sf 4 generously sized bedrooms, 2 full baths, fireplace, partial finished basement, a fenced yard with patio, enclosed porch, and 2 car attached garage. Ideally located near amenities and major thoroughfares, this property is brimming with potential and ready for your personal finishing touches. A fantastic opportunity you won't want to pass up!

8. 2018-03-30
   soldstatus $169,750
9. 2018-03-26
   soldstatus Closed
10. 2018-01-20
    status Pending
11. 2018-01-11
    price $169,750
12. 2017-12-14
    listed $174,750 Active
13. 2017-08-23
    soldstatus $86,500
14. 2017-08-22
    listed $86,500
15. 2017-08-21
    soldstatus Closed
16. 2010-09-28
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,364 · $280/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,364 · $280/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,432
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,519
• − Property taxes: −$3,364
• − Insurance: −$1,474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,955
• − Management: −$1,955
• − Depreciation: −$8,579
• Taxable loss: −$9,414
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,259
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,836/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ferguson-Florissant R-II
• NCES district ID: 2912010
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $44,610
• Composite: 11.96/100
• National rank: #9666
• State rank: #311 of 324 in MO

Livability — Florissant

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #82
• US rank: #5406

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Florissant, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 42,258
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 43,056
• Household income: $66,776
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1429.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 71% White 23% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.78%
• Current HPI: 570.6
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.51%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+240.9% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $294,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-27 Listed $299,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-10 Coming Soon $299,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-14 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-06 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-07 Listed $185,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-30 Sold (Public Records) $169,750 Public Records
• 2018-03-26 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-01-20 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-01-11 Price Changed $169,750 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-12-14 Listed $174,750 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-08-23 Sold (Public Records) $86,500 Public Records
• 2017-08-22 Listed $86,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-08-21 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-09-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2022): $3,364 · +6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.