15171 Sage Ln

Weldon, CA 93283

$165,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 1982 · Manufactured · Active · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,340/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$299
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $-106/mo
• Annual: $-1,271/yr
• Cap rate: 6.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.50%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $46,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-106 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $146k (11.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (18.8% below list).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $134k (18.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (8.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,218 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A-, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• South Fork Union (rural): math 25% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #1,016 of 1,400 in CA (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: South Fork Elementary (344 students, 71% FRL); Kern Valley High (reading 75%, 466 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools at 71% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $84k; list at $165k implies a 96% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 5.0% in Weldon — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.