15171 Sage Ln · Weldon, CA 93283

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1982 0.72 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0

Listing remarks

.72 acres, Zoned Agriculture for large animal's horse property! This 1982, 3 bedroom, 2 full bathroom, 1,440 sq. ft. , is a mini ranch. There is a big front covered patio deck and a deck in the backyard. Sual pane windows, central heat, evaporated cooling. Surrounded by Mountains and minutes away from the Piute Mountains. HUGE front yard and backyard for gardens, composition shingle roof, huge pantry in the kitchen. Close to the "TRAIL of 100 GIANTS" in the Sequoia National Forest for the giant redwood trees, Lake Isabella for the fishing derby, the town of Lake Isabella, THE MIGHTY KERN RIVER in Kernville, ski resort and a few hours North of Los Angeles, Great place to live with

Key facts

• Central heat
• Horse property
• Deck in the backyard

Tags

• ZONED AGRICULTURE
• HORSE PROPERTY
• BIG FRONT COVERED PATIO DECK
• DECK IN THE BACKYARD
• SUAL PANE WINDOWS
• CENTRAL HEAT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured home (double-wide); Residential property
• Construction: Permanent foundation
• Exterior features: Partial fencing; Composition/shingle roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Oven
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Range; Oven; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-106 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $146k (11.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (18.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $134k (18.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 5.0% in Weldon — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,218 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A-, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• South Fork Union (rural): math 25% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #1,016 of 1,400 in CA (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: South Fork Elementary (344 students, 71% FRL); Kern Valley High (reading 75%, 466 students, 72% FRL) — zoned schools at 71% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 43 active listings in the ZIP; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $14k appreciation (8.7% local appreciation)).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $84k; list at $165k implies a 96% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $133,977 (18.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.50%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $80,640
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4079 Crocker St St	0.43mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-7%)	13mo	$75,000	$56	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.65% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.48×
• Total profit: $68,204
• Equity at exit: $132,742

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.41×
• Total profit: $203,536
• Equity at exit: $270,868

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93283

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 43
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,340 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$105 /mo · $1,261/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $-106

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,474

Max offer price $146,291

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-13	-5% $-59	+0% $-106	+5% $-153	+10% $-199
Rent	-10% $-212	-5% $-159	+0% $-106	+5% $-53	+10% $0
Rate	-1.0pp $-23	-0.5pp $-64	base $-106	+0.5pp $-149	+1.0pp $-192

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $165,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $165,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $165,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $165,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $165,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $165,000 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $165,000 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    remarks 689-char remark
13. 2026-06-08
    listed $165,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,261 · $105/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,261 · $105/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone A · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 19 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,077
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,261
• − Insurance: −$2,328
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,286
• − Management: −$1,286
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$4,126
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$990
• After-tax cash flow: $-281/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Fork Union
• NCES district ID: 0637470
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $32,532
• Composite: 29.31/100
• National rank: #11836
• State rank: #1016 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Weldon

• Score: 48/100
• State rank: #1218
• US rank: #26156

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime C+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Weldon, CA
• Population (ZIP): 2,129

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 7% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 13% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.65%
• Current HPI: 468.8712
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+560.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $165,000 SSMLS
• 2018-03-16 Sold (Public Records) $84,000 Public Records
• 1997-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $44,000 Public Records
• 1993-08-30 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,261 · +2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.