2191 Harbor Blvd #27

Costa Mesa, CA 92627

$150,000B

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built 2001 · Manufactured · Active · 144 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,642/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax + insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$765
• Net cashflow: $1,840/mo
• Annual: $22,083/yr
• Cap rate: 21.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 52.58%
• DSCR: 3.34
• 1% rule: 2.43%
• Cash to close: $42,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($22k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $150k).
• It's been on market 144 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#558 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, amenities B; Watch: health & safety D+, crime F, commute F.
• Newport-Mesa Unified (urban): math 46% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #106 of 517 in CA (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Wilson Elementary (math 27%, 361 students, 95% FRL); Charles W. Tewinkle Middle (math 26% / reading 24%, grade F, #271 of 498 statewide, top 54%, 506 students, 83% FRL); Estancia High (math 18% / reading 56%, grade F, #578 of 1,170 statewide, top 51%, 1,040 students, 82% FRL) — zoned schools average 87% FRL vs 40% district-wide (47 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 31% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Newport-Mesa Unified average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 129 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 52d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 68% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 6,974 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,839 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orange County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask is 25% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $150k implies a 76% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.7% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 21.0% vs local median 1.8% in Costa Mesa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 144 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.