2801 Valencia Ave

La Homa, TX 78574

$139,995D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,252 sqft · Built 1997 · SingleFamily · Active · 44 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,374/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax + insurance: −$282
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $69/mo
• Annual: $829/yr
• Cap rate: 6.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.11%
• DSCR: 1.09
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $39,199

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $69 ($829/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $137k (1.8% below list).
• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $136k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,308 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• La Joya ISD (suburban): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #759 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Diaz-Villarreal El (math 17% / reading 18%, grade F, #3,805 of 4,322 statewide, top 89%, 594 students, 97% FRL); Domingo Trevino Middle (math 10% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,543 of 1,662 statewide, top 94%, 623 students, 99% FRL); Juarez-Lincoln H S (math 10% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,507 of 1,632 statewide, top 93%, 2,062 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 54% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 474 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $11k; list at $140k implies a 1128% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 96% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 5.5% in La Homa — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.