311 58th Ave E

Bayshore Gardens, FL 34203

$499,000F

6 bd · 4.0 ba · 1,980 sqft · Built 1983 · MultiFamily · Pending · 73 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,991/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,617
• Tax + insurance: −$578
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$838
• Net cashflow: $-42/mo
• Annual: $-507/yr
• Cap rate: 6.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.36%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $139,720

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/?-bath units multifamily listed at $499k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-42 ($-507/yr) — negative. Per door: $-21/mo.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $492k (1.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $399k (20.0% below list).
• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($469k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $399k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#72 in FL, #1,180 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, commute C-, schools F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 384 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 13 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $86k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $305k; list at $499k implies a 64% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.7% in Bayshore Gardens — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $3,991/mo this rent would consume 68% of the median local household income ($71k/yr) (locally 1469% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?