3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,387 sqft ·
Built 1930
· MultiFamily
· Active
· 53 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$9,479/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$6,812
Tax + insurance
−$991
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$1,991
Net cashflow
$-315/mo
Annual
$-3,778/yr
Cap rate
6.00%
Cash-on-cash
-1.04%
DSCR
0.95
1% rule
0.73%
Cash to close
$363,720
Investor read
This is a 2 × 3-bed/3.0-bath units multifamily listed at $1.30M.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-315 ($-4k/yr) — negative. Per door: $-157/mo.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.24M (4.3% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $948k (27.0% below list).
It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.26M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $948k (27.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $9k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $39k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 65/100 on livability (#372 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
South San Francisco Unified (urban): math 38% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #176 of 517 in CA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Los Cerritos Elementary (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,270 of 1,571 statewide, top 83%, 306 students, 50% FRL); Alta Loma Middle (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #170 of 498 statewide, top 35%, 628 students, 34% FRL); South San Francisco High (math 37% / reading 64%, grade D+, #324 of 1,170 statewide, top 28%, 1,280 students, 41% FRL).
Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 76 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,019 units permitted in San Mateo County in 2024 (484 in 5+ unit buildings).
San Mateo County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Current owner paid $165k; list at $1.30M implies a 687% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 2.1% in South San Francisco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $9,479/mo this rent would consume 83% of the median local household income ($137k/yr) (locally 2470% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
CashFlowRE · CFR-172HAC0HC05K47
· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29