2 bd · 1.0 ba ·
640 sqft ·
Built 1907
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 83 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$859/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$378
Tax + insurance
−$115
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$180
Net cashflow
$186/mo
Annual
$2,234/yr
Cap rate
9.40%
Cash-on-cash
11.08%
DSCR
1.49
1% rule
1.19%
Cash to close
$20,160
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $72k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $186 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($859 rent vs $72k).
It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $68k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $498 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 66/100 on livability (#645 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, schools D-, crime F.
Toledo City (urban): math 15% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #634 of 656 in OH (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Watch-outs: built in 1907 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 111 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 415 units permitted in Lucas County in 2024 (122 in 5+ unit buildings).
Lucas County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
5 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $49k; 47% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.3% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 7.6% in Toledo — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1907 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-17AGPR610RXENX
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29