7835 S Lennox Ln

Tucson, AZ 85747

$244,500D+

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,285 sqft · Built 1997 · SingleFamily · Pending · 27 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,913/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,282
• Tax + insurance: −$287
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $-58/mo
• Annual: $-695/yr
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.02%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $68,460

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $244k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-58 ($-695/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (4.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (21.7% below list).
• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $191k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#17 in AZ, #4,502 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, employment D-.
• Vail Unified District (4413) (rural): math 52% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #26 of 249 in AZ (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Desert Willow Elementary School (math 50% / reading 55%, grade C-, #233 of 1,109 statewide, top 22%, 712 students, 34% FRL); Desert Sky Middle School (math 45% / reading 50%, grade C-, #36 of 218 statewide, top 18%, 764 students, 24% FRL); Cienega High School (math 43% / reading 51%, grade D-, #50 of 381 statewide, top 14%, 1,913 students, 20% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 323 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $166k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.7% in Tucson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.