7835 S Lennox Ln · Tucson, AZ 85747

$244,500

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,285 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1997 5,793 sqft lot Est $284k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.8/15.0
• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spectacular Low Maintenance All Timered Backyard w/Antique Brick Path & Ramada w/Jacuzzi & Electrical Outlets for Lights. 90% Shade Screens on All Windows. Jealousy Front Door. AC Upgraded to 12 Seer 3.5 Ton. Front Yard is Desert, Back is Tropical w/ Queens Palms Tiki Torches and Tile Table w/Umbrella. Jacuzzi is Chemical Free and Low Cost to run and Maintain. Master Bedroom Has Garden Tub and Walk-in Closet. Ceiling Fans in All Rooms.

Key facts

• Great vail schools
• Large corner lot
• Newer roof

Tags

• NEWER HVAC
• NEWER ROOF
• LARGE CORNER LOT
• COVERED PATIO
• EXTENDED PATIO PAVERS
• GREAT VAIL SCHOOLS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned Tucson - R2
• HOA & community: No association amenities

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener; 2 covered parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; South-facing
• Construction: Stucco construction; Built-up reflective roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Block fencing; Corner lot; North/South exposure; Paved street access; Park nearby

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Electric range; Electric oven
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: One living room fireplace; Covered patio
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet with washer and dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $244k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-58 ($-695/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (4.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (21.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $191k (21.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.7% in Tucson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#17 in AZ, #4,502 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, employment D-.
• Vail Unified District (4413) (rural): math 52% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #26 of 249 in AZ (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Desert Willow Elementary School (math 50% / reading 55%, grade C-, #233 of 1,109 statewide, top 22%, 712 students, 34% FRL); Desert Sky Middle School (math 45% / reading 50%, grade C-, #36 of 218 statewide, top 18%, 764 students, 24% FRL); Cienega High School (math 43% / reading 51%, grade D-, #50 of 381 statewide, top 14%, 1,913 students, 20% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 322 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $166k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $191,322 (21.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.02%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $283,985
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7835 S Lennox Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,285 (0%)	1mo	$244,500	$190	96
7871 S Kilbrennan Way	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,285 (0%)	2mo	$250,200	$195	86
7888 S Lauder St	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,297 (+1%)	3mo	$260,000	$200	86
9489 E Lochnay Ln	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,301 (+1%)	3mo	$270,000	$208	82
9045 E Ironbark St	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,286 (+0%)	1mo	$294,900	$229	75
9396 E Lochnay Ln	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,165 (-9%)	7mo	$290,000	$249	71
8200 S Vía Elemental	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,333 (+4%)	3mo	$259,000	$194	66
9472 E Stonehaven Way	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,165 (-9%)	6mo	$288,500	$248	65
7860 S Caesar Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,358 (+6%)	2mo	$303,000	$223	58
9494 E Paseo Del Parque	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+10%)	3mo	$325,000	$231	49
9569 E Paseo Juan Tabo	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,410 (+10%)	7mo	$260,000	$184	49
8271 S Via Del Forjador	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,133 (-12%)	2mo	$250,000	$221	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-48,961
• Equity at exit: $36,456

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-69,238
• Equity at exit: $21,140

Cash invested: $68,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85747

• Home prices YoY: -20.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 322
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,913 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,282
• Tax from tax record: −$185 /mo · $2,224/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $-58

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,987

Max offer price $234,265

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $80	-5% $11	+0% $-58	+5% $-127	+10% $-196
Rent	-10% $-209	-5% $-134	+0% $-58	+5% $18	+10% $93
Rate	-1.0pp $65	-0.5pp $4	base $-58	+0.5pp $-121	+1.0pp $-186

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,125
• Closing costs: $7,335
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9342 E Marcasite Ln Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1297	$1,600	$1.23	21d	1	0.11mi
9164 E Sugar Sumac St Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1264	$1,680	$1.33	4d	1	0.22mi
8047 S New Abbey Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1427	$1,795	$1.26	45d	1	0.27mi
9647 E Banbridge St Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1738	$2,085	$1.20	17d	1	0.43mi
8238 S Placita del Parque Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.5	1475	$1,795	$1.22	4d	1	0.49mi
9300 E Valencia Rd Tucson, AZ	2.0	2.0	1501	$2,055	$1.37	45d	1	0.60mi
7625 S Athel Tree Dr Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1538	$1,955	$1.27	18d	1	0.69mi
8969 E Martha Root Ct Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1339	$1,850	$1.38	21d	1	0.69mi
7319 S Dempsey Ave Tucson, AZ	3.0	3.0	1768	$2,000	$1.13	45d	1	0.71mi
10000 E Arizona Sunset Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1397	$1,795	$1.28	4d	1	0.90mi
9985 E Paseo San Ardo Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1592	$1,700	$1.07	11d	1	1.01mi
9997 E Paseo San Ardo Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1592	$1,890	$1.19	13d	1	1.03mi
10157 E Placita del Timbre Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1318	$1,795	$1.36	4d	1	1.11mi
10358 E Roywood Way Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1385	$1,820	$1.31	21d	1	1.32mi
10229 E Calle Cadiz Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1442	$1,670	$1.16	45d	1	1.36mi
8668 S Desert Dove Dr Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1581	$1,925	$1.22	13d	1	1.38mi
10430 E Rita Ranch Crossing Cir Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.0	1784	$1,875	$1.05	45d	1	1.41mi
10199 E Prospect Vista Way Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.5	1765	$1,899	$1.08	4d	1	1.47mi
10500 E Carolina Willow Ln Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	1700	$1,875	$1.10	45d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $244,500 Pending 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-05
   days on market $244,500 Active Contingent 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $244,500 Active Contingent 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $244,500 Active Contingent 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $244,500 Active Contingent 23 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $244,500 Active Contingent 22 DOM
7. 2026-05-24
   status Active
8. 2026-05-14
   historical Active Contingent
9. 2026-05-09
   listed $244,500 Active
10. 2005-01-12
    soldstatus $165,500 447-char remark

    Show marketing remark (447 chars)

    Spectacular Low Maintenance All Timered Backyard w/Antique Brick Path & Ramada w/Jacuzzi & Electrical Outlets for Lights. 90% Shade Screens on All Windows. Jealousy Front Door. AC Upgraded to 12 Seer 3.5 Ton. Front Yard is Desert, Back is Tropical w/ Queens Palms Tiki Torches and Tile Table w/Umbrella. Jacuzzi is Chemical Free and Low Cost to run and Maintain. Master Bedroom Has Garden Tub and Walk-in Closet. Ceiling Fans in All Rooms.

11. 2005-01-12
    soldstatus $165,500

    Show marketing remark (447 chars)

    Spectacular Low Maintenance All Timered Backyard w/Antique Brick Path & Ramada w/Jacuzzi & Electrical Outlets for Lights. 90% Shade Screens on All Windows. Jealousy Front Door. AC Upgraded to 12 Seer 3.5 Ton. Front Yard is Desert, Back is Tropical w/ Queens Palms Tiki Torches and Tile Table w/Umbrella. Jacuzzi is Chemical Free and Low Cost to run and Maintain. Master Bedroom Has Garden Tub and Walk-in Closet. Ceiling Fans in All Rooms.

12. 2004-11-22
    listed $165,500 447-char remark

    Show marketing remark (447 chars)

    Spectacular Low Maintenance All Timered Backyard w/Antique Brick Path & Ramada w/Jacuzzi & Electrical Outlets for Lights. 90% Shade Screens on All Windows. Jealousy Front Door. AC Upgraded to 12 Seer 3.5 Ton. Front Yard is Desert, Back is Tropical w/ Queens Palms Tiki Torches and Tile Table w/Umbrella. Jacuzzi is Chemical Free and Low Cost to run and Maintain. Master Bedroom Has Garden Tub and Walk-in Closet. Ceiling Fans in All Rooms.

13. 1997-03-03
    soldstatus $93,393

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,224 · $185/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,224 · $185/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥103°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,959
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,696
• − Property taxes: −$2,224
• − Insurance: −$1,222
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,837
• − Management: −$1,837
• − Depreciation: −$7,113
• Taxable loss: −$4,970
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,193
• After-tax cash flow: $497/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vail Unified District (4413)
• NCES district ID: 0408850
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $77,126
• Composite: 49.1/100
• National rank: #2051
• State rank: #26 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tucson

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #4502

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tucson, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 839,336
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 27,753
• Household income: $110,816
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 197.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 13% Black 5% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -63.04%
• Current HPI: 250.6404
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.05%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+161.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2026-05-14 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2026-05-09 Listed $244,500 MLSSAZ
• 2005-01-12 Sold (Public Records) $165,500 Public Records
• 2005-01-12 Sold (MLS) $165,500 MLSSAZ
• 2004-11-22 Listed $165,500 MLSSAZ
• 1997-03-03 Sold (Public Records) $93,393 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,224 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.