25 Gould Rd

Centereach, NY 11720

$699,999D-

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,769 sqft · Built 1977 · SingleFamily · Pending · 43 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,255/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,671
• Tax + insurance: −$1,292
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,104
• Net cashflow: $-811/mo
• Annual: $-9,738/yr
• Cap rate: 4.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.97%
• DSCR: 0.78
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $196,000

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $700k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-811 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $557k (20.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $526k (24.9% below list).
• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($679k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $526k (24.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#362 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Middle Country Central School District (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #217 of 590 in NY (top 37%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Oxhead Road School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 371 students, 38% FRL); Dawnwood Middle School (math 37% / reading 46%, grade F, #394 of 729 statewide, top 55%, 1,074 students, 37% FRL); Centereach High School (math 84% / reading 77%, grade A, #506 of 1,100 statewide, top 46%, 1,475 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools average 37% FRL vs 22% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $245k; list at $700k implies a 186% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.8% in Centereach — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• At $5,255/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($135k/yr) (locally 436% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.