25 Gould Rd · Centereach, NY 11720

$699,999

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,769 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1977 10,019 sqft lot $396/sqft · at area comps Est $814k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.8/15.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 25 Gould Road, a charming 5 bedroom 2 bath Colonial located in the heart of Centereach. If potential had an address this would be it! This well maintained home is the perfect blank canvas waiting for your own creative personal touch. Situated just off Middle Country road, the location of this home is prime for anyone looking for convenience. With generously sized bedrooms & a spacious layout there is plenty of room for a growing family. The property also allows for income potential with proper permits & is being sold AS-IS. Additional Features include Central Air, Newer roof & siding, 200 amp electrical panel, Hardwood floors throughout, In ground Pool with new

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Pool

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Cesspool sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Built with advanced framing technique
• Exterior features: In-ground private pool; No waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Stainless steel appliances; Eat-in kitchen
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Oil heating; Has fireplace (1)
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Finished partial basement; Attic details: see remarks; 10 total rooms; Stainless steel appliances

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $700k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-811 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $557k (20.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $526k (24.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $526k (24.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.8% in Centereach — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#362 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Middle Country Central School District (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #217 of 590 in NY (top 37%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Oxhead Road School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,444 of 2,108 statewide, top 71%, 371 students, 38% FRL); Dawnwood Middle School (math 37% / reading 46%, grade F, #394 of 729 statewide, top 55%, 1,074 students, 37% FRL); Centereach High School (math 84% / reading 77%, grade A, #506 of 1,100 statewide, top 46%, 1,475 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools average 37% FRL vs 22% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,255/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($135k/yr) (locally 436% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($679k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $245k; list at $700k implies a 186% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $525,543 (24.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.97%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $814,392
• List price: $699,999
• Delta: -14.05%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
137 Dawn Dr	0.35mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,815 (+3%)	6mo	$625,000	$344	69
46 -4 Oak St Unit A	0.34mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,800 (+2%)	4mo	$765,000	$425	69
131 Stanley Dr	0.39mi	5/2.5	1,890 (+7%)	10mo	$617,000	$326	60
113 Lenore Ln	0.51mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,900 (+7%)	0mo	$650,000	$342	57
119 Cedar St	0.58mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,922 (+9%)	1mo	$492,900	$256	52
12 Everett St	0.08mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,000 (+13%)	18mo	$700,000	$350	52
15 Vine St	0.69mi	5/2.0	1,776 (+0%)	18mo	$635,000	$358	52
171 Stanley Dr	0.52mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (-14%)	4mo	$540,000	$357	43
8 Laurel St	0.56mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,000 (+13%)	15mo	$625,000	$313	35
5 Sycamore St	0.67mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,510 (-15%)	6mo	$555,000	$368	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-164,957
• Equity at exit: $104,372

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-209,556
• Equity at exit: $60,523

Cash invested: $196,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11720

• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,255 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,671
• Tax from tax record: −$1,001 /mo · $12,009/yr
• Insurance: −$292
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,104
• Net cashflow: $-811

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,283

Max offer price $556,647

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-415	-5% $-613	+0% $-811	+5% $-1,010	+10% $-1,208
Rent	-10% $-1,227	-5% $-1,019	+0% $-811	+5% $-604	+10% $-396
Rate	-1.0pp $-459	-0.5pp $-633	base $-811	+0.5pp $-993	+1.0pp $-1,177

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $175,000
• Closing costs: $21,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
61 Gould Rd Centereach, NY	4.0	3.0	2592	$3,850	$1.49	26d	1	0.17mi
63 Sunflower Ridge Rd South Setauket, NY	4.0	2.5	2479	$5,300	$2.14	26d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $699,999 Pending 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $699,999 Active 43 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $699,999 Active 42 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $699,999 Active 41 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $699,999 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $699,999 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $699,999 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $699,999 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $699,999 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $699,999 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $699,999 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $699,999 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $699,999 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $699,999 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-07
    listed $699,999 Active 824-char remark
16. 2026-05-04
    historical $699,999 824-char remark
17. 2002-08-29
    soldstatus $245,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $12,009 · $1,001/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $12,009 · $1,001/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $63,065
• − Mortgage interest: −$39,211
• − Property taxes: −$12,009
• − Insurance: −$3,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,045
• − Management: −$5,045
• − Depreciation: −$20,364
• Taxable loss: −$22,108
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,306
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,432/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middle Country Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3619200
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $86,140
• Composite: 52.89/100
• National rank: #1532
• State rank: #217 of 590 in NY

Livability — Centereach

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #362
• US rank: #6174

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Centereach, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 29,292
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 29,292
• Household income: $134,898
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 436.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 15% Asian 7% Two or more races 7% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -633.07%
• Current HPI: 347.7369
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+185.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Listed $699,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-04 Coming Soon $699,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-08-29 Sold (Public Records) $245,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $12,009 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.