22725 Harlan Ln

St. Robert, MO 65584

$154,500C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,061 sqft · Built 1978 · Other · Pending · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,444/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$810
• Tax + insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$303
• Net cashflow: $210/mo
• Annual: $2,522/yr
• Cap rate: 7.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.83%
• DSCR: 1.26
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $43,260

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $154k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $210 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (6.6% below list).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $144k (6.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Waynesville R-VI (town): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #41 of 324 in MO (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Freedom Elem. (math 44% / reading 45%, grade F, #413 of 1,115 statewide, top 42%, 961 students, 54% FRL); Waynesville Sr. High (math 37% / reading 53%, grade D-, #176 of 521 statewide, top 34%, 1,704 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools average 46% FRL vs 28% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.2%/yr); 130 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 62 units permitted in Pulaski County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.4% in St. Robert — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.