22725 Harlan Ln · St. Robert, MO 65584

$154,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,061 sqft · Other public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1978 0.27 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Take a look at this Unusual Home located on Large corner lot with 3 bedrooms and 2 Full baths. Cozy Living Room has Fireplace. Sun Room located close to Kitchen that has been newly remodeled with new countertops, some new cabinets, New Stainless Appliances, and Bar area. Lots of New Vinyl Plank Flooring with remodeled bathrooms. Primary Bedroom has Walk-In Closet and private balcony. Utility Room located off Kitchen with Washer & Dryer Included. Two year old wooden Privacy Fence has a 16X24 Extended Deck. Great Place to enjoy the outdoors. Located just minutes from Main Gate of Fort Leonard Wood.

Key facts

• Large corner lot
• New cabinets
• Bar area

Tags

• LARGE CORNER LOT
• NEWLY REMODELED KITCHEN
• NEW COUNTERTOPS
• NEW CABINETS
• NEW STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• BAR AREA

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage/carport; 2 garage spaces (2 parking total)
• Utilities: Public water; Lagoon sewer; 220 volt electric; Cable available; Electricity connected; Phone available; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; Updated/remodeled condition; One and one-half stories; Private ownership
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Architectural shingle roof; Concrete perimeter foundation; House structure type; Built/updated (year not specified)
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Deck; Front porch; Privacy wood fencing; Corner lot; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on upper level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Combination flooring; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (1 full bath on main level, 1 full bath on upper level)
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heating; Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Kitchen/dining room combo; Blinds; Double-pane windows; Masonry fireplace in the living room
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $154k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $210 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $144k (6.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $144k (6.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.4% in St. Robert — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Waynesville R-VI (town): math 46% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #41 of 324 in MO (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Freedom Elem. (math 44% / reading 45%, grade F, #413 of 1,115 statewide, top 42%, 961 students, 54% FRL); Waynesville Sr. High (math 37% / reading 53%, grade D-, #176 of 521 statewide, top 34%, 1,704 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools average 46% FRL vs 28% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.2%/yr); 130 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 62 units permitted in Pulaski County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $144,379 (6.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.83%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-4,082
• Equity at exit: $23,036

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.11×
• Total profit: $48,157
• Equity at exit: $13,358

Cash invested: $43,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65584

• Home prices YoY: -18.8%
• Rents YoY: 10.2%
• Active inventory: 130
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,444 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$810
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $670/yr
• Insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$303
• Net cashflow: $210

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,178

Max offer price $154,500

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,625
• Closing costs: $4,635
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
24344 Tanglewood Rd Saint Robert, MO	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,425	$0.98	44d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-03
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-01
   listed $154,500 Active
3. 2026-05-01
   historical $154,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $670 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,499 · $125/mo
• Expected delta: +$829/yr (+$69/mo · 123.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,325
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,654
• − Property taxes: −$670
• − Insurance: −$772
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,386
• − Management: −$1,386
• − Depreciation: −$4,495
• Taxable loss: −$38
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$9
• After-tax cash flow: $2,531/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waynesville R-VI
• NCES district ID: 2931440
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,147
• Composite: 42.36/100
• National rank: #3246
• State rank: #41 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Robert

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Pulaski County · 25,264 people
• Metro: Fort Leonard Wood, MO
• Population (ZIP): 10,553
• Household income: $63,328
• Rent vs Own: 41.5% rent · 58.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 368.0

Population outlook (Pulaski County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 54,214 people
• By 2030: 54,723 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 54,885 · +1.2%
• By 2050: 55,467 · +2.3%
• By 2075: 58,576 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 61,179 · +12.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 10% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · South Korea, Canada, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 5% German/W. Germanic 4% Korean 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Pulaski

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.3) · D 24.2% · R 74.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -28.7pp · 2024: -50.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.3 2020: R+45.7 2016: R+51.7 2012: R+36.1 2008: R+28.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -30.16%
• Current HPI: 130.0726
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.20%
• Metro: Fort Leonard Wood, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Listed $154,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-01 Coming Soon $154,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $670 · +4.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.