4420 Lakeside Dr

Bemus Point, NY 14712

$849,000D-

5 bd · 4.5 ba · 3,432 sqft · Built 2002 · SingleFamily · Active · 218 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,890/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,452
• Tax + insurance: −$1,526
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $-4,485/mo
• Annual: $-53,825/yr
• Cap rate: -0.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -22.64%
• DSCR: -0.01
• 1% rule: 0.22%
• Cash to close: $237,720

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/4.5-bath single-family listed at $849k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4k ($-54k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $216k (74.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (77.7% below list).
• It's been on market 218 days — a 12% lower offer ($747k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $189k (77.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $91k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $85k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#539 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A, cost of living A, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Bemus Point Central School District (rural): math 65% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #238 of 755 in NY (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $126k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $502k; list at $849k implies a 69% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$146k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate -0.0% vs local median 1.8% in Bemus Point — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 218 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 78% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.