4420 Lakeside Dr · Bemus Point, NY 14712

$849,000

5 bd · 4.5 ba · 3,432 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 218 Days on market

Built 2002 1.10 ac lot $247/sqft · 46% below area Est $1585k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +0.0/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 4420 Lakeside Drive, a beautifully designed home that perfectly blends comfort, space, and lakeside charm. Enjoy views of Chautauqua Lake along with deeded lake rights. The property also offers a 4-car garage, providing ample storage and parking for vehicles, lake gear, or recreational equipment. A covered front porch overlooks the beautiful lake, providing a peaceful place to relax and take in the view. Just off the porch is an additional patio with a hot tub, creating the ultimate outdoor retreat for entertaining or unwinding after a long day. Both the porch and patio are accessed from the front of the home, enhancing its inviting curb appeal. The property also includes deeded lake rights, allowing you to fully enjoy lake life with easy water access just steps away. Inside, the foyer opens to a spacious living room featuring a gas fireplace, tall ceilings, and abundant natural light. The kitchen and dining area offer an open-concept design with stainless steel appliances, a large island with seating, and generous counter and cabinet space—ideal for cooking, entertaining, or gathering with family. A convenient half bath add to the home’s functionality and flow. The finished basement expands the living space with a large den centered around another gas fireplace, a wet bar perfect for hosting guests, a full bathroom, and a substantial storage area. This versatile level offers plenty of room for a game room, home gym, or family entertainment area. Upstairs, an elegant catwalk overlooks the main living area, creating an open and airy atmosphere. The second floor features four spacious bedrooms, an office area, and a laundry room for added convenience. Bedrooms one and two share a Jack and Jill bathroom, while another full bath with a tub and shower serves the remaining bedroom and office area, which is accented by skylights that fill the space with natural light. The main suite is a true retreat, featuring a cozy gas fireplace, large walk-in closet, and a spa-inspired en suite bath with a soaking tub and separate shower. Experience the best of lake living where luxury, comfort, and relaxation come together seamlessly at 4420 Lakeside Drive.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Open-concept design
• Deeded lake rights

Tags

• DEEDED LAKE RIGHTS
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• GAS FIREPLACE
• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.5-bath single-family listed at $849k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4k ($-54k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $216k (74.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (77.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (77.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate -0.0% vs local median 1.8% in Bemus Point — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#539 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A, cost of living A, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Bemus Point Central School District (rural): math 65% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #238 of 755 in NY (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 47 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $91k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $85k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$146k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 218 days — a 12% lower offer ($747k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $126k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $502k; list at $849k implies a 69% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $188,998 (77.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 218 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 78% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.22% ✗
• Cap rate: -0.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -22.64%
• DSCR: -0.01
• GRM: 37.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,585,000
• List price: $849,000
• Delta: -46.44%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4328 Lakeside Dr	0.37mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,328 (-3%)	24mo	$1,435,000	$431	49
318 Lakeside Dr	0.59mi	4/4.0 (-1)	3,500 (+2%)	24mo	$1,150,000	$329	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.74×
• Total profit: $176,808
• Equity at exit: $764,846

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.14×
• Total profit: $745,518
• Equity at exit: $1,649,420

Cash invested: $237,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14712

• Home prices YoY: 15.3%
• Active inventory: 47
• Price-to-rent: 37.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,890 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,452
• Tax from tax record: −$1,172 /mo · $14,070/yr
• Insurance: −$354
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $-4,485

Break-even live

Break-even rent $7,568

Max offer price $216,052

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $212,250
• Closing costs: $25,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $849,000 Active 218 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $849,000 Active 217 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $849,000 Active 216 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $849,000 Active 215 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $849,000 Active 214 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $849,000 Active 212 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $849,000 Active 211 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $849,000 Active 208 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $849,000 Active 207 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $849,000 Active 206 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $849,000 Active 203 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $849,000 Active 202 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $849,000 Active 201 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $849,000 Active 200 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $849,000 Active 199 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $849,000 Active 198 DOM
17. 2026-05-06
    price $949,000 2201-char remark

    Show marketing remark (2201 chars)

    Welcome to 4420 Lakeside Drive, a beautifully designed home that perfectly blends comfort, space, and lakeside charm. Enjoy views of Chautauqua Lake along with deeded lake rights. The property also offers a 4-car garage, providing ample storage and parking for vehicles, lake gear, or recreational equipment. A covered front porch overlooks the beautiful lake, providing a peaceful place to relax and take in the view. Just off the porch is an additional patio with a hot tub, creating the ultimate outdoor retreat for entertaining or unwinding after a long day. Both the porch and patio are accessed from the front of the home, enhancing its inviting curb appeal. The property also includes deeded lake rights, allowing you to fully enjoy lake life with easy water access just steps away. Inside, the foyer opens to a spacious living room featuring a gas fireplace, tall ceilings, and abundant natural light. The kitchen and dining area offer an open-concept design with stainless steel appliances, a large island with seating, and generous counter and cabinet space—ideal for cooking, entertaining, or gathering with family. A convenient half bath add to the home’s functionality and flow. The finished basement expands the living space with a large den centered around another gas fireplace, a wet bar perfect for hosting guests, a full bathroom, and a substantial storage area. This versatile level offers plenty of room for a game room, home gym, or family entertainment area. Upstairs, an elegant catwalk overlooks the main living area, creating an open and airy atmosphere. The second floor features four spacious bedrooms, an office area, and a laundry room for added convenience. Bedrooms one and two share a Jack and Jill bathroom, while another full bath with a tub and shower serves the remaining bedroom and office area, which is accented by skylights that fill the space with natural light. The main suite is a true retreat, featuring a cozy gas fireplace, large walk-in closet, and a spa-inspired en suite bath with a soaking tub and separate shower. Experience the best of lake living where luxury, comfort, and relaxation come together seamlessly at 4420 Lakeside Drive.

18. 2025-11-13
    listed $975,000 Active 2201-char remark

    Show marketing remark (2201 chars)

    Welcome to 4420 Lakeside Drive, a beautifully designed home that perfectly blends comfort, space, and lakeside charm. Enjoy views of Chautauqua Lake along with deeded lake rights. The property also offers a 4-car garage, providing ample storage and parking for vehicles, lake gear, or recreational equipment. A covered front porch overlooks the beautiful lake, providing a peaceful place to relax and take in the view. Just off the porch is an additional patio with a hot tub, creating the ultimate outdoor retreat for entertaining or unwinding after a long day. Both the porch and patio are accessed from the front of the home, enhancing its inviting curb appeal. The property also includes deeded lake rights, allowing you to fully enjoy lake life with easy water access just steps away. Inside, the foyer opens to a spacious living room featuring a gas fireplace, tall ceilings, and abundant natural light. The kitchen and dining area offer an open-concept design with stainless steel appliances, a large island with seating, and generous counter and cabinet space—ideal for cooking, entertaining, or gathering with family. A convenient half bath add to the home’s functionality and flow. The finished basement expands the living space with a large den centered around another gas fireplace, a wet bar perfect for hosting guests, a full bathroom, and a substantial storage area. This versatile level offers plenty of room for a game room, home gym, or family entertainment area. Upstairs, an elegant catwalk overlooks the main living area, creating an open and airy atmosphere. The second floor features four spacious bedrooms, an office area, and a laundry room for added convenience. Bedrooms one and two share a Jack and Jill bathroom, while another full bath with a tub and shower serves the remaining bedroom and office area, which is accented by skylights that fill the space with natural light. The main suite is a true retreat, featuring a cozy gas fireplace, large walk-in closet, and a spa-inspired en suite bath with a soaking tub and separate shower. Experience the best of lake living where luxury, comfort, and relaxation come together seamlessly at 4420 Lakeside Drive.

19. 2017-07-25
    soldstatus $501,500 884-char remark

    Show marketing remark (884 chars)

    This spectacular home has panoramic views of Lake Chautauqua sunsets over Bemus Bay from nearly every room as well as a beautiful covered porch spanning the width of the home. Enjoy the central location within walking distance of Long Pointe State Park and the heart of charming Bemus Point. One private boat slip with 126 feet of lakefront (known as Bemus Bay Dock Club), 1500 sq . ft. deck, storage, electricity and more is included. The home has three levels of living space with 4 bedrooms, 4.5 baths, 3 stone gas fireplaces and an additional entertainment area in the lower level. Solid oak wood flooring, ceramic tile, and carpeted bedrooms all have energy efficient radiant heat. The home is cooled with central air conditioning. The welcoming open floor plan is ideal for year-round or vacation living. Storage is ample for boat, jet skis, and snowmobiles in the 4 bay garage.

20. 2017-04-06
    listed $510,000 884-char remark

    Show marketing remark (884 chars)

    This spectacular home has panoramic views of Lake Chautauqua sunsets over Bemus Bay from nearly every room as well as a beautiful covered porch spanning the width of the home. Enjoy the central location within walking distance of Long Pointe State Park and the heart of charming Bemus Point. One private boat slip with 126 feet of lakefront (known as Bemus Bay Dock Club), 1500 sq . ft. deck, storage, electricity and more is included. The home has three levels of living space with 4 bedrooms, 4.5 baths, 3 stone gas fireplaces and an additional entertainment area in the lower level. Solid oak wood flooring, ceramic tile, and carpeted bedrooms all have energy efficient radiant heat. The home is cooled with central air conditioning. The welcoming open floor plan is ideal for year-round or vacation living. Storage is ample for boat, jet skis, and snowmobiles in the 4 bay garage.

21. 2010-07-12
    soldstatus $470,000
22. 2010-01-22
    listed $494,500
23. 2009-06-19
    listed $535,000
24. 2002-11-27
    soldstatus $399,000
25. 2002-11-20
    soldstatus $349,000
26. 2002-01-30
    listed $399,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $14,070 · $1,172/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $14,209 · $1,184/mo
• Expected delta: +$139/yr (+$12/mo · 1.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,680
• − Mortgage interest: −$47,557
• − Property taxes: −$14,070
• − Insurance: −$4,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,814
• − Management: −$1,814
• − Depreciation: −$24,698
• Taxable loss: −$71,519
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$17,165
• After-tax cash flow: $-36,660/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bemus Point Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3604530
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $50,968
• Composite: 55.15/100
• National rank: #2753
• State rank: #238 of 755 in NY

Livability — Bemus Point

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #539
• US rank: #9687

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment F Housing B- Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,079

Population outlook (Chautauqua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,454 people
• By 2030: 118,509 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 107,311 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 96,703 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 76,757 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 60,984 · -50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chautauqua

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.0) · D 39.0% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -22.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.0 2020: R+19.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+8.2 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 48.79%
• Current HPI: 368.206
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+137.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $949,000 UNYREIS
• 2025-11-13 Listed $975,000 UNYREIS
• 2017-07-25 Sold (MLS) $501,500 UNYREIS
• 2017-04-06 Listed $510,000 UNYREIS
• 2010-07-12 Sold (MLS) $470,000 UNYREIS
• 2010-01-22 Listed $494,500 UNYREIS
• 2009-06-19 Listed $535,000 UNYREIS
• 2002-11-27 Sold (MLS) $399,000 UNYREIS
• 2002-11-20 Sold (Public Records) $349,000 Public Records
• 2002-01-30 Listed $399,000 UNYREIS

Property tax history

-2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $14,070 · +0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.