126 Maple Ave

Preston, MD 21655

$224,000C

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,828 sqft · Built 1910 · SingleFamily · Active · 148 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,875/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,175
• Tax + insurance: −$322
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $-16/mo
• Annual: $-190/yr
• Cap rate: 6.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.30%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $62,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $224k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-16 ($-190/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (1.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $187k (16.3% below list).
• It's been on market 148 days — a 12% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $187k (16.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (9.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#245 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Caroline County Public Schools (rural): math 13% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #17 of 24 in MD (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Preston Elementary School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #408 of 860 statewide, top 50%, 406 students, 60% FRL); Colonel Richardson Middle School (math 3% / reading 28%, grade F, #190 of 225 statewide, top 85%, 374 students, 72% FRL); Colonel Richardson High School (math 52% / reading 77%, grade B-, #55 of 222 statewide, top 26%, 549 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 66% FRL vs 48% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 59 units permitted in Caroline County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Caroline County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (9.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.5% in Preston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 148 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.