8700 West Ln #243

Stockton, CA 95210

$99,950B

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Built 1974 · Manufactured · Active · 101 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,873/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax + insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $789/mo
• Annual: $9,463/yr
• Cap rate: 15.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.81%
• DSCR: 2.50
• 1% rule: 1.87%
• Cash to close: $27,986

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $789 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($91k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $91k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $692 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#734 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, amenities A-; Watch: employment C-, crime F, commute F.
• Lodi Unified (urban): math 24% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #325 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Westwood Elementary (math 13% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,223 of 1,571 statewide, top 78%, 443 students, 83% FRL); Morada Middle (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #376 of 498 statewide, top 76%, 746 students, 84% FRL); Ronald E. Mcnair High (math 24% / reading 50%, grade F, #578 of 1,170 statewide, top 51%, 1,768 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 59% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.1%/yr); 106 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,779 units permitted in San Joaquin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Joaquin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.1% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 15.8% vs local median 3.6% in Stockton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.