4 bd · 3.0 ba ·
1,463 sqft ·
Built 1900
· Other
· Active
· 31 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,609/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$944
Tax + insurance
−$370
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$338
Net cashflow
$-43/mo
Annual
$-521/yr
Cap rate
6.00%
Cash-on-cash
-1.03%
DSCR
0.95
1% rule
0.89%
Cash to close
$50,400
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $180k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-43 ($-521/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $172k (4.3% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $161k (10.6% below list).
It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $161k (10.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 70/100 on livability (#438 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities D, crime F, commute F.
Union-Endicott Central School District (suburban): math 43% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #387 of 590 in NY (top 66%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Charles F Johnson Jr Elementary School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,923 of 2,108 statewide, top 92%, 387 students, 66% FRL); Jennie F Snapp Middle School (math 31% / reading 51%, grade F, #402 of 729 statewide, top 56%, 822 students, 65% FRL); Union-Endicott High School (math 91% / reading 90%, grade A+, #231 of 1,100 statewide, top 21%, 999 students, 41% FRL) — zoned schools average 57% FRL vs 42% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.1%/yr); 217 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 340 units permitted in Broome County in 2024 (269 in 5+ unit buildings).
Broome County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
Current owner paid $110k; list at $180k implies a 64% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
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