29 Road 6478

Kirtland, NM 87417

$138,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Built 2012 · Other · Active · 235 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,289/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$724
• Tax + insurance: −$230
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $65/mo
• Annual: $778/yr
• Cap rate: 6.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.01%
• DSCR: 1.09
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $38,640

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $138k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $65 ($778/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $129k (6.6% below list).
• It's been on market 235 days — a 12% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $121k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($954 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (4.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#32 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Central Consolidated Schools (rural): math 8% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #26 of 29 in NM (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 95% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 78 units permitted in San Juan County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Juan County population projected at -51% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (4.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 235 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.