29 Road 6478 · Kirtland, NM 87417

$138,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Other · 235 Days on market

Built 2012 0.91 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Clean and ready single-wide mobile home includes the large lot (0.91 acres). The home has three bedrooms, two bathrooms, an open floor plan with living room, dining room and kitchen in large common space. Located on the Twin Peaks By-Pass north of Kirtland with easy trip to Farmington, Kirtland or Shiprock. Home is currently financed through Vanderbilt 866-380-3000 and the loan may be assumable with a down payment to the seller. 21st Mortgage also has a loan product that will accept single wide homes with land 800-955-0021. Other local lenders may have programs for loan as well. Price is firm. Septic system has passed inspection.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Large lot
• 0.91 acre lot

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $138k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $65 ($778/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $129k (6.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $121k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#32 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Central Consolidated Schools (rural): math 8% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #26 of 29 in NM (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 95% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 78 units permitted in San Juan County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($954 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (4.1% local appreciation)).
• San Juan County population projected at -51% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 235 days — a 12% lower offer ($121k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,440 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 235 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.01%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.14% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $29,312
• Equity at exit: $71,135

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.29×
• Total profit: $88,570
• Equity at exit: $117,289

Cash invested: $38,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87417

• Home prices YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 19
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,289 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$724
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$172 /mo · $2,070/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $65

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,207

Max offer price $138,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,500
• Closing costs: $4,140
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $138,000 Active 235 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $138,000 Active 234 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $138,000 Active 233 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $138,000 Active 232 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $138,000 Active 231 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $138,000 Active 229 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $138,000 Active 228 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $138,000 Active 225 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $138,000 Active 224 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $138,000 Active 223 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $138,000 Active 220 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $138,000 Active 219 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $138,000 Active 218 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $138,000 Active 217 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $138,000 Active 216 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $138,000 Active 215 DOM
17. 2026-03-17
    status Active 637-char remark

    Show marketing remark (637 chars)

    Clean and ready single-wide mobile home includes the large lot (0.91 acres). The home has three bedrooms, two bathrooms, an open floor plan with living room, dining room and kitchen in large common space. Located on the Twin Peaks By-Pass north of Kirtland with easy trip to Farmington, Kirtland or Shiprock. Home is currently financed through Vanderbilt 866-380-3000 and the loan may be assumable with a down payment to the seller. 21st Mortgage also has a loan product that will accept single wide homes with land 800-955-0021. Other local lenders may have programs for loan as well. Price is firm. Septic system has passed inspection.

18. 2026-03-06
    status Pending 637-char remark

    Show marketing remark (637 chars)

    Clean and ready single-wide mobile home includes the large lot (0.91 acres). The home has three bedrooms, two bathrooms, an open floor plan with living room, dining room and kitchen in large common space. Located on the Twin Peaks By-Pass north of Kirtland with easy trip to Farmington, Kirtland or Shiprock. Home is currently financed through Vanderbilt 866-380-3000 and the loan may be assumable with a down payment to the seller. 21st Mortgage also has a loan product that will accept single wide homes with land 800-955-0021. Other local lenders may have programs for loan as well. Price is firm. Septic system has passed inspection.

19. 2025-10-16
    listed $138,000 Active 637-char remark

    Show marketing remark (637 chars)

    Clean and ready single-wide mobile home includes the large lot (0.91 acres). The home has three bedrooms, two bathrooms, an open floor plan with living room, dining room and kitchen in large common space. Located on the Twin Peaks By-Pass north of Kirtland with easy trip to Farmington, Kirtland or Shiprock. Home is currently financed through Vanderbilt 866-380-3000 and the loan may be assumable with a down payment to the seller. 21st Mortgage also has a loan product that will accept single wide homes with land 800-955-0021. Other local lenders may have programs for loan as well. Price is firm. Septic system has passed inspection.

20. 2025-01-13
    soldstatus Closed 262-char remark

    Show marketing remark (262 chars)

    Investor Alert! WELL MAINTAINED SINGLE-WIDE Located in L and V Subdivision. Seller is also selling #2, # 6 and #30 - all in MLS. Land is subdivided and each lot can be sold separately. Buyer to verify square footage and room sizes. Mobile Home and Land for sale.

21. 2024-12-13
    status Pending 262-char remark

    Show marketing remark (262 chars)

    Investor Alert! WELL MAINTAINED SINGLE-WIDE Located in L and V Subdivision. Seller is also selling #2, # 6 and #30 - all in MLS. Land is subdivided and each lot can be sold separately. Buyer to verify square footage and room sizes. Mobile Home and Land for sale.

22. 2024-06-14
    listed $122,500 Active 262-char remark

    Show marketing remark (262 chars)

    Investor Alert! WELL MAINTAINED SINGLE-WIDE Located in L and V Subdivision. Seller is also selling #2, # 6 and #30 - all in MLS. Land is subdivided and each lot can be sold separately. Buyer to verify square footage and room sizes. Mobile Home and Land for sale.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,471
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,730
• − Property taxes: −$2,070
• − Insurance: −$690
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,238
• − Management: −$1,238
• − Depreciation: −$4,015
• Taxable loss: −$1,509
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$362
• After-tax cash flow: $1,140/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Central Consolidated Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500390
• Math proficiency: 8% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $36,722
• Composite: 20.65/100
• National rank: #8542
• State rank: #26 of 29 in NM

Livability — Kirtland

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #32
• US rank: #11261

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,507

Population outlook (San Juan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 95,201 people
• By 2030: 84,154 · -11.6%
• By 2040: 63,810 · -33.0%
• By 2050: 46,929 · -50.7%
• By 2075: 21,097 · -77.8%
• By 2100: 9,410 · -90.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.87)
• Race & ethnicity: Native American 55% White 35% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · San Juan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.7) · D 33.0% · R 64.7% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -21.2pp · 2024: -31.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.7 2020: R+28.3 2016: R+33.1 2012: R+28.5 2008: R+21.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.14%
• Current HPI: 140.67
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+12.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Relisted — SJCMLS
• 2026-03-06 Pending — SJCMLS
• 2025-10-16 Listed $138,000 SJCMLS
• 2025-01-13 Sold (MLS) — SJCMLS
• 2024-12-13 Pending — SJCMLS
• 2024-06-14 Listed $122,500 SJCMLS

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $210 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.