3408 Aster Ct

Midland, MI 48642

$39,900D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Built 1999 · Other · Active · 89 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,790/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax + insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$376
• Net cashflow: $1,138/mo
• Annual: $13,659/yr
• Cap rate: 40.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 122.26%
• DSCR: 6.44
• 1% rule: 4.49%
• Cash to close: $11,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $40k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $40k).
• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($38k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $38k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#28 in MI, #578 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Midland Public Schools (urban): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #62 of 540 in MI (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 95 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 320 units permitted in Midland County in 2024 (204 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Midland County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.6% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 40.5% vs local median 4.4% in Midland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.