502 Northstar Dr #1946

Keystone, CO 80435

$325,000D

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 1,692 sqft · Built 1996 · Condo · Active · 393 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,280/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax + insurance: −$466
• HOA: −$400
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$689
• Net cashflow: $21/mo
• Annual: $251/yr
• Cap rate: 6.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.28%
• DSCR: 1.01
• 1% rule: 1.01%
• Cash to close: $91,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath condo listed at $325k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $21 ($251/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $325k).
• It's been on market 393 days — a 12% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $286k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#412 in CO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A-; Watch: commute C-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Summit School District No. RE-1 (rural): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #35 of 86 in CO (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Summit Cove Elementary School (math 44% / reading 47%, grade D-, #268 of 966 statewide, top 28%, 226 students, 32% FRL); Summit Middle School (math 24% / reading 38%, grade F, #126 of 270 statewide, top 46%, 764 students, 38% FRL); Summit High School (math 37% / reading 62%, grade D, #115 of 381 statewide, top 34%, 1,132 students, 29% FRL).
• Market conditions: 419 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 308 units permitted in Summit County in 2024 (123 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Summit County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $159k; list at $325k implies a 104% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 0.4% in Keystone — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($97k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 393 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.