502 Northstar Dr #1946 · Keystone, CO 80435

$325,000

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 1,692 sqft · Condo public records · 393 Days on market

Built 1996 $400/mo HOA · 12% of rent ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Own at a fraction of the cost!Opportunity to enjoy a quarter share in Northstar at Keystone , that is nestled in the woods & on the quiet side of neighborhood. This beautiful interior unit enjoys tall ceilings w/ stone surround gas fireplace, two decks & one car garage. Well cared for & Keystone Ski Area is right down the road! Enjoy the Soda Spring pool & hot tub, shuttle stop to ski area & walk to fly fishing & Keystone Lake village

Key facts

• Private decks
• Bunkroom ensuite
• Private garage

Tags

• GAS FIREPLACE
• PRIVATE DECKS
• SPACIOUS PRIMARY SUITE
• BUNKROOM ENSUITE
• PRIVATE GARAGE
• HIKE AND BIKE ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned multi-family
• HOA & community: Homeowners association (annual fee); Association fee $4,800 annually (approx. $400/month); Association provides snow removal; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer available and connected; Electricity available; Natural gas available; Cable available and connected
• Home design: Residential timeshare; Three or more levels; Multi/split-level; Entry level is 1
• Construction: Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Community pool; Near public transit; Paved road access; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Garbage disposal; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 three-quarter bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air heating; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings; Furnished; See remarks
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath condo listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $21 ($251/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $325k).
• Recommended offer: $286k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 0.4% in Keystone — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#412 in CO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A-; Watch: commute C-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Summit School District No. RE-1 (rural): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #35 of 86 in CO (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Summit Cove Elementary School (math 44% / reading 47%, grade D-, #268 of 966 statewide, top 28%, 226 students, 32% FRL); Summit Middle School (math 24% / reading 38%, grade F, #126 of 270 statewide, top 46%, 764 students, 38% FRL); Summit High School (math 37% / reading 62%, grade D, #115 of 381 statewide, top 34%, 1,132 students, 29% FRL).
• Market conditions: 419 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 308 units permitted in Summit County in 2024 (123 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($97k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Summit County population projected at +32% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 393 days — a 12% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $159k; list at $325k implies a 104% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $286,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 393 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.28%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-51,085
• Equity at exit: $48,459

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-41,760
• Equity at exit: $28,100

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 80435

• Active inventory: 419
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,280 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$331 /mo · $3,967/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$400
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$689
• Net cashflow: $21

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,254

Max offer price $325,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $205	-5% $113	+0% $21	+5% $-71	+10% $-163
Rent	-10% $-238	-5% $-109	+0% $21	+5% $150	+10% $280
Rate	-1.0pp $185	-0.5pp $104	base $21	+0.5pp $-63	+1.0pp $-149

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $400 · $4,800/yr
• Likely covers: gaspool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $325,000 Active 393 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $325,000 Active 391 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $325,000 Active 390 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $325,000 Active 389 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $325,000 Active 388 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $325,000 Active 387 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $325,000 Active 385 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $325,000 Active 384 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $325,000 Active 381 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $325,000 Active 380 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $325,000 Active 379 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $325,000 Active 376 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $325,000 Active 374 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $325,000 Active 373 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $325,000 Active 372 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $325,000 Active 371 DOM
17. 2026-05-11
    price $325,000
18. 2025-12-31
    price $349,000
19. 2025-05-24
    listed $375,000 Active
20. 2018-12-17
    soldstatus $159,250
21. 2018-12-14
    soldstatus $159,250 474-char remark

    Show marketing remark (474 chars)

    Own at a fraction of the cost!Opportunity to enjoy a quarter share in Northstar at Keystone , that is nestled in the woods & on the quiet side of neighborhood. This beautiful interior unit enjoys tall ceilings w/ stone surround gas fireplace, two decks & one car garage. Well cared for & Keystone Ski Area is right down the road! Enjoy the Soda Spring pool & hot tub, shuttle stop to ski area & walk to fly fishing & Keystone Lake village

22. 2018-11-16
    soldstatus $159,250 Sold 461-char remark

    Show marketing remark (461 chars)

    Own at a fraction of the cost!Opportunity to enjoy a quarter share in Northstar at Keystone , that is nestled in the woods & on the quiet side of neighborhood. This beautiful interior unit enjoys tall ceilings w/stone surround gas fireplace, two decks & one car garage. Well cared for & Keystone Ski Area is right down the road! Enjoy the Soda Spring pool & hot tub, shuttle stop to ski area & walk to fly fishing & Keystone Lake village

23. 2018-11-16
    soldstatus $159,250

    Show marketing remark (461 chars)

    Own at a fraction of the cost!Opportunity to enjoy a quarter share in Northstar at Keystone , that is nestled in the woods & on the quiet side of neighborhood. This beautiful interior unit enjoys tall ceilings w/stone surround gas fireplace, two decks & one car garage. Well cared for & Keystone Ski Area is right down the road! Enjoy the Soda Spring pool & hot tub, shuttle stop to ski area & walk to fly fishing & Keystone Lake village

24. 2018-10-31
    status Under Contract 461-char remark

    Show marketing remark (461 chars)

    Own at a fraction of the cost!Opportunity to enjoy a quarter share in Northstar at Keystone , that is nestled in the woods & on the quiet side of neighborhood. This beautiful interior unit enjoys tall ceilings w/stone surround gas fireplace, two decks & one car garage. Well cared for & Keystone Ski Area is right down the road! Enjoy the Soda Spring pool & hot tub, shuttle stop to ski area & walk to fly fishing & Keystone Lake village

25. 2018-10-16
    listed $165,000 Active 461-char remark

    Show marketing remark (461 chars)

    Own at a fraction of the cost!Opportunity to enjoy a quarter share in Northstar at Keystone , that is nestled in the woods & on the quiet side of neighborhood. This beautiful interior unit enjoys tall ceilings w/stone surround gas fireplace, two decks & one car garage. Well cared for & Keystone Ski Area is right down the road! Enjoy the Soda Spring pool & hot tub, shuttle stop to ski area & walk to fly fishing & Keystone Lake village

26. 2018-10-15
    historical

    Show marketing remark (474 chars)

    Own at a fraction of the cost!Opportunity to enjoy a quarter share in Northstar at Keystone , that is nestled in the woods & on the quiet side of neighborhood. This beautiful interior unit enjoys tall ceilings w/ stone surround gas fireplace, two decks & one car garage. Well cared for & Keystone Ski Area is right down the road! Enjoy the Soda Spring pool & hot tub, shuttle stop to ski area & walk to fly fishing & Keystone Lake village

27. 2018-10-15
    listed $165,000 474-char remark

    Show marketing remark (474 chars)

    Own at a fraction of the cost!Opportunity to enjoy a quarter share in Northstar at Keystone , that is nestled in the woods & on the quiet side of neighborhood. This beautiful interior unit enjoys tall ceilings w/ stone surround gas fireplace, two decks & one car garage. Well cared for & Keystone Ski Area is right down the road! Enjoy the Soda Spring pool & hot tub, shuttle stop to ski area & walk to fly fishing & Keystone Lake village

28. 2018-09-07
    price $330,000
29. 2018-06-09
    price $350,000
30. 2018-05-08
    listed $394,000 Active
31. 2018-04-30
    listed $165,000
32. 2013-09-30
    historical
33. 2013-07-22
    soldstatus $210,000
34. 2013-07-01
    historical
35. 2012-05-26
    listed $219,999
36. 2012-05-26
    listed $149,000
37. 2011-09-30
    soldstatus $140,500
38. 2004-12-14
    soldstatus $407,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,967 · $331/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,967 · $331/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 11 d/yr ≥70°F today · 31 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,361
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$3,967
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,149
• − Management: −$3,149
• − HOA: −$4,800
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$4,989
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,197
• After-tax cash flow: $1,448/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Summit School District No. RE-1
• NCES district ID: 0806810
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $67,591
• Composite: 31.97/100
• National rank: #5840
• State rank: #35 of 86 in CO

Livability — Keystone

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #412
• US rank: #25767

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living F Crime A- Employment B- Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Keystone, CO
• County: Summit County · 31,352 people
• Metro: Breckenridge, CO
• Population (ZIP): 8,715
• Household income: $97,463
• Rent vs Own: 38.4% rent · 61.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 302.0

Population outlook (Summit County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 35,421 people
• By 2030: 37,983 · +7.2%
• By 2040: 42,597 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 46,695 · +31.8%
• By 2075: 55,288 · +56.1%
• By 2100: 61,033 · +72.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 20% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Portuguese 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Summit

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+37.2) · D 67.0% · R 29.9% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.1pp toward D · 2008: 33.0pp · 2024: 37.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+37.2 2020: D+39.5 2016: D+27.6 2012: D+24.4 2008: D+33.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -237.44%
• Current HPI: 342.4123
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Breckenridge, CO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

-20.1% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $325,000 SAR
• 2025-12-31 Price Changed $349,000 SAR
• 2025-05-24 Listed $375,000 SAR
• 2018-12-17 Sold (Public Records) $159,250 Public Records
• 2018-12-14 Sold (MLS) $159,250 SAR
• 2018-11-16 Sold (MLS) $159,250 SAR
• 2018-11-16 Sold (MLS) $159,250 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-10-31 Pending — REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-10-16 Listed $165,000 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-10-15 Listed $165,000 SAR
• 2018-10-15 Listing Removed — REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-09-07 Price Changed $330,000 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-06-09 Price Changed $350,000 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-05-08 Listed $394,000 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-04-30 Listed $165,000 SAR
• 2013-09-30 Listing Removed — REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-07-22 Sold (Public Records) $210,000 Public Records
• 2013-07-01 Listing Removed — REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-05-26 Listed $149,000 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-05-26 Listed $219,999 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $140,500 Public Records
• 2004-12-14 Sold (Public Records) $407,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,967 · -12.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.