1207 Lombard Way

Tubac, AZ 85646

$235,000C+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,103 sqft · Built 2020 · Townhouse · Active · 63 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,565/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax + insurance: −$251
• HOA: −$184
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$539
• Net cashflow: $359/mo
• Annual: $4,303/yr
• Cap rate: 8.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.54%
• DSCR: 1.29
• 1% rule: 1.09%
• Cash to close: $65,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $235k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $359 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $235k).
• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($221k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $221k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-333 appreciation (-0.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#60 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A, housing A; Watch: schools C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Santa Cruz Valley Unified District (4458) (town): math 12% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #184 of 249 in AZ (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 155 active listings in the ZIP; 340 units permitted in Santa Cruz County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Santa Cruz County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $184k; 28% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-0.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $66k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.5% in Tubac — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.