1207 Lombard Way · Tubac, AZ 85646

$235,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,103 sqft · Townhouse · 63 Days on market

Built 2020 1,508 sqft lot $213/sqft · 8% below area Est $255k · 8% under $184/mo HOA · 7% of rent ↓ 51% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.6/30.0
• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Appreciation +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Darling two bedroom, two bath townhome in the heart of Barrio de Tubac's Master planned Barrio Embarcadero. Fabulous rooftop/sky deck that looks over the gorgeous Tubac/Santa Cruz River valley & provides the most glorious sunrises & sunsets.... Not to mention enjoy the dark night skies of Southern Arizona! This smart 2/2 has a beautiful great room with a beehive gas fireplace & open flow. Both bedrooms are spacious and private. Beautiful natural light filled home with tile floors throughout. No wasted space here! Plus move in condition! Barrio Embarcadero has resort style amenities to include pool, spa & gym within the community to enjoy. Plus you're minutes away from the charming village of Tubac, golf, shopping, fabulous restaurants and sweeping vistas in every which direction!

Key facts

• Tile floors
• Rooftop sky deck
• Great room

Tags

• ROOFTOP SKY DECK
• GREAT ROOM
• BEEHIVE GAS FIREPLACE
• NATURAL LIGHT FILLED HOME
• TILE FLOORS
• RESORT STYLE AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $359 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $235k).
• Recommended offer: $221k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.5% in Tubac — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#60 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A, housing A; Watch: schools C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Santa Cruz Valley Unified District (4458) (town): math 12% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #184 of 249 in AZ (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 155 active listings in the ZIP; 340 units permitted in Santa Cruz County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-333 appreciation (-0.1% local appreciation)).
• Santa Cruz County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $66k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($221k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $184k; 28% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.54%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $255,340
• List price: $235,000
• Delta: -7.97%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1109 Lombard Way	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,106 (+0%)	2mo	$225,000	$203	96
1504 Golden Gate Way	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,110 (+1%)	3mo	$215,000	$194	95
1004 Lombard Way	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,046 (-5%)	1mo	$255,000	$244	89
1503 Golden Gate Way	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,110 (+1%)	12mo	$262,500	$236	87
1306 Golden Gate Way	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,093 (-1%)	14mo	$290,000	$265	84
1209 Lombard Way	0.01mi	2/2.0	1,103 (0%)	20mo	$275,000	$249	83
604 Post Way	0.11mi	1/2.0 (-1)	1,052 (-5%)	3mo	$215,000	$204	80
109 Post Way	0.15mi	1/2.0 (-1)	1,008 (-9%)	1mo	$197,000	$195	73
110 Post Way	0.15mi	1/2.0 (-1)	1,008 (-9%)	2mo	$239,000	$237	72
303 Post Way	0.16mi	1/2.0 (-1)	1,047 (-5%)	12mo	$241,000	$230	69
410 Post Way	0.10mi	1/2.0 (-1)	1,008 (-9%)	11mo	$260,000	$258	67
127 Calle Frida Kahlo	0.54mi	2/2.0	1,232 (+12%)	5mo	$310,000	$252	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.14% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $14,469
• Equity at exit: $66,574

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.08×
• Total profit: $71,354
• Equity at exit: $78,710

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85646

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 155
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,565 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$154 /mo · $1,842/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$184
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$539
• Net cashflow: $359

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,111

Max offer price $235,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $184 · $2,208/yr
• Likely covers: gaspoolgym

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $235,000 Active 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $235,000 Active 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $235,000 Active 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $235,000 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $235,000 Active 58 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $245,000 Active 55 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $245,000 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $245,000 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $245,000 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $245,000 Active 49 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $245,000 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $245,000 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $245,000 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $245,000 Active 45 DOM
15. 2026-05-09
    price $245,000 810-char remark

    Show marketing remark (810 chars)

    Darling two bedroom, two bath townhome in the heart of Barrio de Tubac's Master planned Barrio Embarcadero. Fabulous rooftop/sky deck that looks over the gorgeous Tubac/Santa Cruz River valley & provides the most glorious sunrises & sunsets.... Not to mention enjoy the dark night skies of Southern Arizona! This smart 2/2 has a beautiful great room with a beehive gas fireplace & open flow. Both bedrooms are spacious and private. Beautiful natural light filled home with tile floors throughout. No wasted space here! Plus move in condition! Barrio Embarcadero has resort style amenities to include pool, spa & gym within the community to enjoy. Plus you're minutes away from the charming village of Tubac, golf, shopping, fabulous restaurants and sweeping vistas in every which direction!

16. 2026-04-16
    listed $255,000 Active 810-char remark

    Show marketing remark (810 chars)

    Darling two bedroom, two bath townhome in the heart of Barrio de Tubac's Master planned Barrio Embarcadero. Fabulous rooftop/sky deck that looks over the gorgeous Tubac/Santa Cruz River valley & provides the most glorious sunrises & sunsets.... Not to mention enjoy the dark night skies of Southern Arizona! This smart 2/2 has a beautiful great room with a beehive gas fireplace & open flow. Both bedrooms are spacious and private. Beautiful natural light filled home with tile floors throughout. No wasted space here! Plus move in condition! Barrio Embarcadero has resort style amenities to include pool, spa & gym within the community to enjoy. Plus you're minutes away from the charming village of Tubac, golf, shopping, fabulous restaurants and sweeping vistas in every which direction!

17. 2021-02-04
    soldstatus $184,000 615-char remark

    Show marketing remark (615 chars)

    Beautiful two and three bedroom town homes nestled in the Barrio de Tubac Master planned Community and close to everything you need!! The village of Tubac with shopping, restaurants and historic features is only minutes away and a pool, gym and hot tub are right around the corner! These beautifully constructed homes are engineered for energy efficiency as well as functionality. Each unit has a sky deck which affords stunning views and is a great place to enjoy your favorite beverage while watching the stunning Tubac sunrises and sunsets! Invest in your happiness and start enjoying the Tubac lifestyle today!

18. 2020-05-15
    listed $189,000 615-char remark

    Show marketing remark (615 chars)

    Beautiful two and three bedroom town homes nestled in the Barrio de Tubac Master planned Community and close to everything you need!! The village of Tubac with shopping, restaurants and historic features is only minutes away and a pool, gym and hot tub are right around the corner! These beautifully constructed homes are engineered for energy efficiency as well as functionality. Each unit has a sky deck which affords stunning views and is a great place to enjoy your favorite beverage while watching the stunning Tubac sunrises and sunsets! Invest in your happiness and start enjoying the Tubac lifestyle today!

19. 2009-11-09
    soldstatus $500,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,842 · $154/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,842 · $154/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,781
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$1,842
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,463
• − Management: −$2,463
• − HOA: −$2,208
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable income: $631
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$151
• After-tax cash flow: $4,152/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Cruz Valley Unified District (4458)
• NCES district ID: 0407520
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $48,019
• Composite: 16.84/100
• National rank: #9147
• State rank: #184 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tubac

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #60
• US rank: #10219

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A Housing A Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tubac, AZ
• City population: 1,280
• Population (ZIP): 1,280

Population outlook (Santa Cruz County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 43,796 people
• By 2030: 42,097 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 38,235 · -12.7%
• By 2050: 34,224 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 26,014 · -40.6%
• By 2100: 18,165 · -58.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 14% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Italian 2% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 20%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Cruz

• 2024 margin: D (+18.6) · D 58.9% · R 40.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 31.3pp · 2024: 18.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.6 2020: D+35.5 2016: D+47.1 2012: D+37.8 2008: D+31.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.14%
• Current HPI: 298.5755
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-51.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $245,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-16 Listed $255,000 MLSSAZ
• 2021-02-04 Sold (MLS) $184,000 MLSSAZ
• 2020-05-15 Listed $189,000 MLSSAZ
• 2009-11-09 Sold (Public Records) $500,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+16.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,842 · +6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.