517 28 1/4 Rd

Grand Junction, CO 81501

$199,000F

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 504 sqft · Built 1915 · SingleFamily · Pending · 56 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,187/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax + insurance: −$264
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $-370/mo
• Annual: $-4,442/yr
• Cap rate: 4.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.97%
• DSCR: 0.65
• 1% rule: 0.60%
• Cash to close: $55,720

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-370 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $134k (32.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $119k (40.4% below list).
• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $119k (40.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#15 in CO, #2,222 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Mesa County Valley School District No. 51 (suburban): math 26% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #43 of 86 in CO (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Orchard Avenue Elementary School (math 15% / reading 52%, grade F, #454 of 966 statewide, top 47%, 337 students, 54% FRL); Bookcliff Middle School (math 18% / reading 26%, grade F, #188 of 270 statewide, top 72%, 449 students, 59% FRL); Central High School (math 19% / reading 43%, grade F, #229 of 381 statewide, top 60%, 1,613 students, 45% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.9%/yr); 166 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,014 units permitted in Mesa County in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $36k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 3.1% in Grand Junction — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.