1787 Sereno Dr

Loughman, FL 33896

$284,900D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,541 sqft · Built 2011 · SingleFamily · Active · 68 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,310/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,494
• Tax + insurance: −$306
• HOA: −$163
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$485
• Net cashflow: $-138/mo
• Annual: $-1,660/yr
• Cap rate: 5.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.08%
• DSCR: 0.91
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $79,772

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-138 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $260k (8.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (18.9% below list).
• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $231k (18.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.8%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#781 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Loughman Oaks Elementary School (math 36% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,670 of 2,144 statewide, top 78%, 1,052 students, 37% FRL); Shelley S. Boone Middle School (math 25% / reading 25%, grade F, #517 of 571 statewide, top 91%, 1,403 students, 52% FRL); Davenport High School (2,333 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 60% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 779 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $285k implies a 533% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 8→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.8% in Loughman — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.