1787 Sereno Dr · Loughman, FL 33896

$284,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,541 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 68 Days on market

Built 2011 6,050 sqft lot $163/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Sellers will pay off the Solar Panel balance at closing, giving buyers peace of mind and lower ongoing utility costs. Welcome to this beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 2-bath home located in the desirable community of Sereno in Davenport. This property offers a bright, open layout with spacious living areas perfect for both everyday comfort and entertaining. The home includes solar panels, providing energy efficiency benefits, and a whole-home water softener system for added convenience. Enjoy a modern kitchen, well-appointed bedrooms, and a private backyard ideal for relaxing or outdoor gatherings. Conveniently situated near shopping, dining, major highways, and Central Florida attractions

Key facts

• Private backyard
• Solar panels
• Modern kitchen

Tags

• SOLAR PANELS
• WATER SOFTENER SYSTEM
• MODERN KITCHEN
• PRIVATE BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead exemption indicated
• Financial info: No lease restrictions indicated
• HOA & community: Sereno Home Owner Association; Monthly HOA fee of $163 (required); Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Solar energy
• Home design: Single-family residence; One-story; East-facing
• Construction: Stucco construction; Shingle roof; Block foundation; Built as single-level home
• Exterior features: Asphalt road access; Lot approximately 0.14 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (single-level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Other interior features; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-138 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $260k (8.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (18.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $231k (18.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.8% in Loughman — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#781 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Loughman Oaks Elementary School (math 36% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,670 of 2,144 statewide, top 78%, 1,052 students, 37% FRL); Shelley S. Boone Middle School (math 25% / reading 25%, grade F, #517 of 571 statewide, top 91%, 1,403 students, 52% FRL); Davenport High School (2,333 students, 37% FRL) — zoned schools average 42% FRL vs 60% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 779 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.8%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($268k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $285k implies a 533% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 8→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $230,984 (18.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.71%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.08%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.83% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-47,530
• Equity at exit: $57,570

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-66,005
• Equity at exit: $51,349

Cash invested: $79,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33896

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 779
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,310 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,494
• Tax from tax record: −$187 /mo · $2,248/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$163
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$485
• Net cashflow: $-138

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,485

Max offer price $260,463

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $23	-5% $-58	+0% $-138	+5% $-219	+10% $-300
Rent	-10% $-321	-5% $-230	+0% $-138	+5% $-47	+10% $44
Rate	-1.0pp $5	-0.5pp $-66	base $-138	+0.5pp $-212	+1.0pp $-287

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,225
• Closing costs: $8,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1782 Sereno Dr Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1419	$2,000	$1.41	25d	1	0.02mi
1580 Tamarind Rd Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1763	$2,135	$1.21	5d	1	0.10mi
1529 Venice Ln Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1760	$2,250	$1.28	5d	1	0.23mi
2666 Rosemont Cir Davenport, FL	4.0	3.0	1937	$2,650	$1.37	25d	1	0.94mi
3943 Cortland Dr Davenport, FL	4.0	3.0	2027	$2,275	$1.12	25d	1	1.03mi
289 Siesta Vista Ct Davenport, FL	3.0	2.0	1815	$2,100	$1.16	25d	1	1.05mi
1980 Greenbriar Ter Davenport, FL	3.0	2.5	2224	$2,500	$1.12	16d	1	1.10mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $163 · $1,956/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $284,900 Active 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $284,900 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $284,900 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $279,900 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $290,000 Active 62 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $290,000 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $290,000 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $290,000 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $290,000 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $290,000 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $290,000 Active 51 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $290,000 Active 50 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $290,000 Active 49 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $290,000 Active 48 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $290,000 Active 47 DOM
16. 2026-05-07
    price $290,000
17. 2026-04-14
    listed $329,900 Active
18. 2023-09-01
    historical
19. 2023-03-30
    listed $365,000 Active
20. 2022-03-25
    price $355,000
21. 2022-02-24
    price $375,000
22. 2022-01-30
    listed $380,000 Active
23. 2010-12-09
    soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,248 · $187/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,365 · $197/mo
• Expected delta: +$116/yr (+$10/mo · 5.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 8 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,718
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,959
• − Property taxes: −$2,248
• − Insurance: −$1,424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,217
• − Management: −$2,217
• − HOA: −$1,956
• − Depreciation: −$8,288
• Taxable loss: −$6,592
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,582
• After-tax cash flow: $-78/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Loughman

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #781
• US rank: #17702

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 23,652
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,731
• Household income: $74,668
• Rent vs Own: 54.9% rent · 45.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1490.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 14% Black 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 15% Cuban 4% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Estonian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 31% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.83%
• Current HPI: 219.4726
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.19%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+544.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $290,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-14 Listed $329,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-01 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-30 Listed $365,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-25 Price Changed $355,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-24 Price Changed $375,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-01-30 Listed $380,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-12-09 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,248 · +8.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.