812 S Ash St

Archer City, TX 76351

$189,900D

3 bd · 0.5 ba · 3,210 sqft · Built 1954 · SingleFamily · Active · 447 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,323/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$554
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $-505/mo
• Annual: $-6,056/yr
• Cap rate: 3.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.39%
• DSCR: 0.49
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $53,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/0.5-bath single-family listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-505 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $114k (40.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $132k (30.3% below list).
• It's been on market 447 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $114k (40.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (7.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#220 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Archer City ISD (rural): math 56% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #79 of 826 in TX (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Archer City El (math 62% / reading 62%, grade B, #321 of 4,322 statewide, top 8%, 287 students, 54% FRL); Archer City H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 206 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 34% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price; built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 25 units permitted in Archer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Archer County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $75k (28%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 447 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?