812 S Ash St · Archer City, TX 76351

$189,900

3 bd · 0.5 ba · 3,210 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 447 Days on market

Built 1954 $59/sqft · 48% below area Est $362k · 48% under ↓ 28% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +8.5/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.3/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Stately home just 1/2 block from ACISD. Spacious throughout this home provides a formal living room and dining room with great natural light from pane windows. The large kitchen with metal cabinets, walk-in pantry and desk area leave plenty of room for your dream kitchen. The inviting family room has wood beams, wood paneling and a fireplace w large windows overlooking the patio. A hall bath connects to the primary suite. A Jack & Jill bath serves the front 2 bedrooms. Conditioned storage leads to garage.

Key facts

• Inviting family room
• Large kitchen
• Dining room

Tags

• FORMAL LIVING ROOM
• DINING ROOM
• LARGE KITCHEN
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• DESK AREA
• INVITING FAMILY ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/0.5-bath single-family listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-505 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $114k (40.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $132k (30.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $114k (40.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#220 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Archer City ISD (rural): math 56% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #79 of 826 in TX (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Archer City El (math 62% / reading 62%, grade B, #321 of 4,322 statewide, top 8%, 287 students, 54% FRL); Archer City H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 206 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 34% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 25 units permitted in Archer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (7.1% local appreciation)).
• Archer County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 447 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $75k (28%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price; built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,915 (40.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 447 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 40% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.39%
• DSCR: 0.49
• GRM: 12.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $361,774
• List price: $189,900
• Delta: -47.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

7.06% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $34,981
• Equity at exit: $132,283

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.37×
• Total profit: $125,998
• Equity at exit: $251,904

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76351

• Home prices YoY: 7.0%
• Active inventory: 8
• Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,323 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$475 /mo · $5,696/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $-505

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,962

Max offer price $113,915

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-397	-5% $-451	+0% $-505	+5% $-558	+10% $-612
Rent	-10% $-609	-5% $-557	+0% $-505	+5% $-452	+10% $-400
Rate	-1.0pp $-409	-0.5pp $-456	base $-505	+0.5pp $-554	+1.0pp $-604

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $189,900 Active 447 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $189,900 Active 445 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,900 Active 444 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,900 Active 443 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,900 Active 442 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,900 Active 441 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $189,900 Active 439 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,900 Active 438 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $189,900 Active 436 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $189,900 Active 435 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $189,900 Active 434 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,900 Active 433 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $189,900 Active 430 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,900 Active 429 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,900 Active 428 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,900 Active 427 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,900 Active 426 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $189,900 Active 425 DOM
19. 2026-04-01
    historical
20. 2026-03-13
    price $189,900 516-char remark

    Show marketing remark (516 chars)

    Stately home just 1/2 block from ACISD. Spacious throughout this home provides a formal living room and dining room with great natural light from pane windows. The large kitchen with metal cabinets, walk-in pantry and desk area leave plenty of room for your dream kitchen. The inviting family room has wood beams, wood paneling and a fireplace w large windows overlooking the patio. A hall bath connects to the primary suite. A Jack & Jill bath serves the front 2 bedrooms. Conditioned storage leads to garage.

21. 2026-03-10
    price $189,900
22. 2025-10-23
    price $224,500 516-char remark

    Show marketing remark (516 chars)

    Stately home just 1/2 block from ACISD. Spacious throughout this home provides a formal living room and dining room with great natural light from pane windows. The large kitchen with metal cabinets, walk-in pantry and desk area leave plenty of room for your dream kitchen. The inviting family room has wood beams, wood paneling and a fireplace w large windows overlooking the patio. A hall bath connects to the primary suite. A Jack & Jill bath serves the front 2 bedrooms. Conditioned storage leads to garage.

23. 2025-10-22
    price $224,500
24. 2025-10-13
    listed $265,000 Active
25. 2025-10-01
    historical
26. 2025-08-18
    status Active
27. 2025-08-08
    historical Active Option Contract
28. 2025-04-26
    listed $265,000 Active
29. 2025-03-31
    listed $265,000 Active 516-char remark

    Show marketing remark (516 chars)

    Stately home just 1/2 block from ACISD. Spacious throughout this home provides a formal living room and dining room with great natural light from pane windows. The large kitchen with metal cabinets, walk-in pantry and desk area leave plenty of room for your dream kitchen. The inviting family room has wood beams, wood paneling and a fireplace w large windows overlooking the patio. A hall bath connects to the primary suite. A Jack & Jill bath serves the front 2 bedrooms. Conditioned storage leads to garage.

30. 1992-11-10
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,696 · $475/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,696 · $475/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,873
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$5,696
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,270
• − Management: −$1,270
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$9,474
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,274
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,782/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Archer City ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808610
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,782
• Composite: 50.04/100
• National rank: #1917
• State rank: #79 of 826 in TX

Livability — Archer City

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #5417

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Archer City, TX
• Population (ZIP): 1,481

Population outlook (Archer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,158 people
• By 2030: 7,855 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 7,120 · -12.7%
• By 2050: 6,320 · -22.5%
• By 2075: 4,842 · -40.6%
• By 2100: 3,527 · -56.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Archer

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+79.3) · D 10.1% · R 89.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.9pp toward R · 2008: -65.4pp · 2024: -79.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+79.3 2020: R+80.4 2016: R+79.4 2012: R+73.8 2008: R+65.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.06%
• Current HPI: 107.3175
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-28.3% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $189,900 WFAOR
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $189,900 NTREIS
• 2025-10-23 Price Changed $224,500 WFAOR
• 2025-10-22 Price Changed $224,500 NTREIS
• 2025-10-13 Listed $265,000 NTREIS
• 2025-10-01 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-08-18 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2025-08-08 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2025-04-26 Listed $265,000 NTREIS
• 2025-03-31 Listed $265,000 WFAOR
• 1992-11-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,696 · -27.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.