195 Mitchell Rd

Graball, TN 37148

$205,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,508 sqft · Built 1986 · Other · Pending · 11 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,844/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax + insurance: −$342
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $40/mo
• Annual: $481/yr
• Cap rate: 6.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.84%
• DSCR: 1.04
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $57,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $205k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $40 ($481/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (10.0% below list).
• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $184k (10.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#396 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, housing F.
• Sumner County (suburban): math 44% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #12 of 139 in TN (top 9%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: J W Wiseman Elementary (math 52% / reading 37%, grade F, #164 of 952 statewide, top 19%, 384 students, 0% FRL); Portland East Middle School (math 23% / reading 19%, grade F, #187 of 333 statewide, top 58%, 405 students, 0% FRL); Portland High School (math 17% / reading 30%, grade F, #145 of 332 statewide, top 44%, 1,199 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 34% district-wide (34 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 305 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,748 units permitted in Sumner County in 2024 (124 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sumner County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $205k implies a 215% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.