195 Mitchell Rd · Graball, TN 37148

$205,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,508 sqft · Other public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1986 1.05 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Priced to move! This 3 bed/2 bath home sits on a full acre of land at the end of a quiet dead-end road. If you're looking for lots of room to move, both inside and out, this is it! The living room and main bedroom are oversized for easy living, and the huge covered back porch is perfect for your 3 grills and/or a hot tub. With a permanent foundation and an approx 3-year-old roof, the big-ticket items are already taken care of. Plus, there’s an asphalt driveway leading to a 22' x 22' workshop/storage building out back. Come and see all the boxes this home checks off your list. Seller selling "as is"

Key facts

• 1.05 acre lot
• 4 parking spots
• Built 1986

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $40 ($481/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (10.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (10.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#396 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, housing F.
• Sumner County (suburban): math 44% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #12 of 139 in TN (top 9%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: J W Wiseman Elementary (math 52% / reading 37%, grade F, #164 of 952 statewide, top 19%, 384 students, 0% FRL); Portland East Middle School (math 23% / reading 19%, grade F, #187 of 333 statewide, top 58%, 405 students, 0% FRL); Portland High School (math 17% / reading 30%, grade F, #145 of 332 statewide, top 44%, 1,199 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 34% district-wide (34 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 305 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,748 units permitted in Sumner County in 2024 (124 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sumner County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $205k implies a 215% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,400 (10.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.84%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-30,640
• Equity at exit: $30,566

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-23,283
• Equity at exit: $17,725

Cash invested: $57,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37148

• Home prices YoY: -22.2%
• Active inventory: 305
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,844 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$256 /mo · $3,075/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $40

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,793

Max offer price $205,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $182	-5% $111	+0% $40	+5% $-31	+10% $-102
Rent	-10% $-106	-5% $-33	+0% $40	+5% $113	+10% $186
Rate	-1.0pp $143	-0.5pp $92	base $40	+0.5pp $-13	+1.0pp $-67

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,250
• Closing costs: $6,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
117 White Ln Portland, TN	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	45d	1	1.26mi
111 White Ln Portland, TN	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	45d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-13
   price $205,000
3. 2026-04-10
   status Active
4. 2026-04-05
   status Pending
5. 2026-04-03
   listed $229,900 Active
6. 2026-03-27
   historical $229,900
7. 2013-07-19
   soldstatus $65,000
8. 2005-05-31
   soldstatus $61,000
9. 1992-02-15
   soldstatus $31,100

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,128
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,483
• − Property taxes: −$3,075
• − Insurance: −$1,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,770
• − Management: −$1,770
• − Depreciation: −$5,964
• Taxable loss: −$2,959
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$710
• After-tax cash flow: $1,191/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumner County
• NCES district ID: 4704020
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $56,998
• Composite: 36.44/100
• National rank: #4667
• State rank: #12 of 139 in TN

Livability — Graball

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #396
• US rank: #24747

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C+ Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Sumner County · 196,654 people
• Metro: Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
• Population (ZIP): 26,274
• Household income: $81,633
• Rent vs Own: 24.3% rent · 75.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 319.0

Population outlook (Sumner County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 208,284 people
• By 2030: 223,902 · +7.5%
• By 2040: 253,892 · +21.9%
• By 2050: 281,199 · +35.0%
• By 2075: 344,866 · +65.6%
• By 2100: 384,369 · +84.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Serbian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumner

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.8) · D 28.5% · R 70.3% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: -34.9pp · 2024: -41.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.8 2020: R+38.6 2016: R+45.0 2012: R+42.0 2008: R+34.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.34%
• Current HPI: 315.8252
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Nashville-Davidson--Murfreesboro--Franklin, TN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+559.2% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-19 Pending — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $205,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Relisted — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-05 Pending — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Listed $229,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-27 Coming Soon $229,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-07-19 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2005-05-31 Sold (Public Records) $61,000 Public Records
• 1992-02-15 Sold (Public Records) $31,100 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $393 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.