Dakota Plan

Odessa, TX 79761

$197,400F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,586 sqft · Built — · Manufactured · Active · 828 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,052/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,391
• Tax + insurance: −$442
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $-212/mo
• Annual: $-2,543/yr
• Cap rate: 5.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.42%
• DSCR: 0.85
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $74,272

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $197k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-212 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $197k).
• It's been on market 828 days — a 12% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $174k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#132 in TX, #3,928 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, amenities D, schools F.
• Ector County ISD (urban): math 22% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #707 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 96 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,004 units permitted in Ector County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ector County population projected at +78% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 828 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.